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DTN Grain Midday: Soybean Trade Up 5 to 13 Cents

Mike Christensen
By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst June 10, 2014

Soybeans are higher at midday, with corn and wheat lower.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 10. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 14 higher. Energies are flat with crude up $.12. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $7.

 

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade unable to sustain the overnight gains. Basis has remained stable to slightly firmer to start the week, and ethanol margins are holding up well. The weekly progress report listed emergence at 92% versus the 90% average pace and 83% a year ago. Planting progress was not on the report and considered virtually complete. Crop conditions were down 1 percentage point to 75% good to excellent and poor to very poor ratings were up 2 to 4 percentage points. On the chart we have December resistance at the 10-day at $4.56 then the 20-day at $4.67. Support is the recent low at $4.45. July has resistance at $4.60, the 10-day, and support at $4.45 as well. The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are due out at 11 a.m. on Wednesday. That along with the weather should give us direction this week. The trade is expecting only small changes on both the old-crop and new-crop balance sheets, so any big change from the May numbers would get a market reaction.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 5 to 13 cents higher at midday, with meal $6.50 to $8.00 higher and oil is 35 to 45 points lower. The weekly progress report yesterday listed soybean plantings at 87% versus the 81% average. Emergence was at 71% versus the 62% average. The first crop ratings were good with 74% rated good to excellent, and only 4% poor to very poor. The USDA monthly report will be important to watch on Wednesday but the market is not looking for much change. The old crop carryover was at 130 million on the May report and the average trade guess is 127 million bushels. The acreage and quarterly stocks numbers are much more important reports this month, which are due at end of the month. On the chart, July is below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages at $14.80 and $14.84, while November has traded back above the 10-day at $12.27, and is just below the 20-day at $12.32 at midday.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 4 to 10 cents lower at midday with Chicago wheat futures the downside leader yet again. The weekly progress numbers listed winter wheat 86% headed versus the 85% average and 9% harvested versus the 12% average. Spring wheat plantings were at 95% versus the 93% average with emergence at 80% versus the 82% average. Winter wheat crop ratings were steady at 30% good to excellent and 44% poor to very poor. Spring wheat ratings were at 71% good to excellent versus 62% a year ago. Recent rains have slowed harvest on the Southern Plains and have raised some quality concerns on some acres. The weather forecast from Russia has improved but the rain is yet to fall. On the chart July Kansas City found support at the $7.08 200-day and bounced, but the upside momentum has fizzled after moving above the $7.24 10-day on Friday, which is now support. The 20-day up at $7.47 is now Kansas City July chart resistance. The trade is looking for limited changes on the monthly report Wednesday morning. The average trade guess for the 2014-15 U.S. carryover is 552 million bushels versus 540 last month; the range is 475-660 million.

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Mike Christensen
By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst June 10, 2014