Agfax Buzz:
    June 10, 2014

    Doane Cotton Close: Production Expected Up in WASDE

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    The Doane Cotton Commentary - Leading in Agricultural Analysis Over 70 Years - Copyright

    The price erosion continues with substantial improvement in soil moisture for Texas cotton country and forecasts for more. NASS put out weekly crop progress yesterday and cotton planting is now 89% complete, only 2 pts shy of the 5-year average and 2 pts ahead of last year. Ditto for “squaring” where the figure is 8% vs. 5-year average of 10% and last year’s figure at 6%

    NASS has resumed reporting condition ratings with yesterday’s report. Right at 50% of the nation’s cotton crop is rated good to excellent, ahead of last year’s figure of 42%. Similary, only 13% is rated poor to very poor, down from last year when 22% fell into one of those two categories.

     

    Trade estimates for tomorrow’s June WASDE report from USDA are out. The average production estimate is 15 million bales, up from USDA’s 14.5 million estimate in May. Estimates range from 14.4 to 15.2 million. The average trade estimate for exports is 10 million bales, up from USDA’s 9.7 million in May. But it still nets out to average expected ending stocks of 4 million bales, up from 3.9 million in May and a big jump from 2.8 million for 2013/14. The range of private ending stocks estimates is huge, from as low as 3.6 million to as high as 4.3 million.

    We think the risk is to the bearish side. USDA’s May figure was based on a very conservative estimate of acreage harvested of only 76% of acreage planted. All it would take would be for USDA to hike that figure to a more normal 80% to put production at 15.2 million bales, even if they don’t boost their yield forecast despite the improved Texas conditions. And if they boosted their yield assumption by just 5% on top of raising the harvested acreage percentage you could be looking at a 16 million bale crop. Is that possible? Yes. A 5% hike in yield would put the U.S. average at 865 lbs per acre, still below the 887 lbs. per acre harvested in 2012.

    Be sure to check the website about noon central time tomorrow for our review of the June WASDE, market reaction and any advice changes.

    Tags:

    Copyright , Doane Advisory Services

    >

    Agfax Cotton News

    Doane Cotton Close: Prices Looking for Bottom1-27

    Texas Crop Weather: Rains Improve Pasture, Wheat Outlook, Bring Soggy Fields1-27

    AFB Cotton Close: Futures Continue Recovery1-27

    DTN Cotton Close: Edges Slightly Higher, Led by March1-27

    Cotton: Industry Recognizes Utah Researcher For Cotton Genome Efforts1-27

    DTN Cotton Open: Futures Start Slightly Higher1-27

    Keith Good: Pork Prices Drop as Hog Herd Recovers from PEDv Outbreak1-27

    Attention Weed Zombies – There’s a Robot Killin’ Machine in Your Future1-26

    Doane Cotton Close: Global Acreage Expected to Drop1-26

    Texas: Cotton Harvest Continues on Northern Plains – USDA1-26

    DTN Cotton Close: Surges to Strong Gains1-26

    Wilbur-Ellis Shifts Operation from California to Colorado1-26

    USDA Clears Way for BASF’s Herbicide Engenia1-26

    DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Slow Demand Holds Prices Down1-26

    DTN Cotton Open: Bounces Following Trader Data1-26

    Flint on Crops: Can I Grow Conventional Cotton Profitably?1-26

    Keith Good: Farmland Holds its Value Despite Drop in Commodity Prices1-26

    Shurley On Cotton: NCC Planting Intentions Could Sway Market1-25

    Rose On Cotton: Profitability In ’15? The “Ifs” Must Line Up Right.1-24

    Cleveland on Cotton: World Plantings Need Reduction. How Much?1-23

    Missouri: Insect Management Guide, Resistence Research1-23

    Texas Ag Forum, Austin, Feb. 201-23

    AFB Cotton Close: Futures Chart bearish Key Reversal1-23

    DTN Cotton Close: Reverses to Finish on New Low1-23

    Arkansas: Irrigation Expo Slated for Feb. 25 at Stuttgart1-23

    DTN Cotton Open: Hits New Session Highs on Robust Sales1-23

    Georgia: Heavy Rainfall, Drought Tested Farmers in 20141-23

    Alabama: Wiregrass Cotton Expo Scheduled Feb. 6 at Dothan1-23

    Arkansas: ASU’s Agribusiness Conference Slated Feb. 11 in Jonesboro1-23

    Keith Good: World Grain Inventories Headed for Highest in 30 Years1-23

    Doane Cotton Close: New Sales Continue to Drive Bearish Drop1-22

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles Modestly Lower1-22

    AFB Cotton Close: Futures Lower in Narrow Trade1-22

    Residential Propane Price Increases, Heating Oil Declines1-22

    Propane Stocks Fall Over 3M Barrels1-22

    Gasoline Prices Continue Downward1-22

    Farming and Bankruptcy – 9 Lessons You Need to Know1-22

    Diesel Drops Below $31-22

    Louisiana: Cover Crop Benefits and Management Options1-22

    Old World Bollworm Coming Soon to U.S. Mainland — DTN1-22