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DTN Grain Midday: Wheat Sees Double-Digit Losses

Mike Christensen
By David Fiala, DTN Contributing Analyst May 16, 2014

Row crops are mixed in slow midday action; wheat is seeing another day with some double-digit losses.

General Comments

U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures up 6. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 2 higher. Energies are mixed with crude up .60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold flat.

        
         

CORN

Corn futures are flat to 2 cents lower at midday due to negative chart momentum and limited fresh supportive news. The fact we are around one-month lows appears to be the friendliest item discussed. Planting delays remain confined to the northern growing areas at this time and the cold temperatures will keep emergence slow this week, but this has not held the market higher the past few sessions. Frost may have nipped some early emerged corn in some areas, but long-term damage from frost should be limited, with most northern areas still unplanted. Basis should remain stable to firm with the losses on the board. On the July chart, trade is below the 20-day moving averages both at $5.06 and below the $5.01 10-day and 50-day. Chart support is the 200-day at $4.73.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher at midday with meal flat to $1 higher and oil 10 to 20 points lower. The USDA announced 40,000 metric tons of soy oil sold to China, and 180,000 metric tons of new-crop beans sold to unknown. NOPA crush was in line with expectations at 132.7 million bushels; this helped limit downside on old crop. Basis has generally firmed for old-crop soybeans with the weaker futures action. Soybean planting should continue at a good pace in the south this week but moisture and below normal temperatures has slowed planting in areas. On the July chart soybeans are trading between the 10-day moving average at $14.70 and the 20-day at $14.77. November beans found support around the $12.08 50-day moving average and traded back up to the $12.21 10-day overnight. Important resistance is at the $12.28 20-day.

WHEAT

Wheat futures are 4 to 15 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with Chicago gaining vs. the KC and Minneapolis trade as spreads unwind. Cold air could add additional damage to the Southern Plains wheat crop this morning, but profit-taking and fund action is in charge for now. Egypt has sourced their near-term wheat needs from the Black Sea this week. Other wheat growing areas around the world look to have fairly stable conditions. On the chart, Chicago wheat has support at the 200-day moving average at $6.58, with resistance at the 20-day moving average of $7.07 on strength, while KC has support at $7.70, which was the area trade launched from and resistance at $8.00 where we find the 20-day moving average.

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Mike Christensen
By David Fiala, DTN Contributing Analyst May 16, 2014