Friday, May 16, 2014

DTN Cotton Close: Extends Losing Streak to Six Sessions

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


July finished at its lowest close since March 5. Mills priced a modest 168 on-call lots of old-crop cotton and added 840 lots in December in the latest CFTC reporting week.

Cotton futures extended a losing streak to six sessions in a row Friday, finishing at the lowest close in spot July since March 5.

July settled down 54 points to 89.82 cents, just off the low of its 108-point range from up 48 points at 90.84 to down 60 points at 89.76 cents. It slipped through longstanding chart support around 90 cents to near another support point at 89.71, the low of March 24.

December closed off 28 points to 82.34 cents, trading from up 18 points at 82.80 to down 44 points at 82.18. It posted its lowest intraday price since April 25 and lowest close since April 21.




For the week, the market shed 254 points in July and 137 points in December. The inverted July-December spread lost 117 points, closing at a 748-point premium on July. The close matched the low seasonal settlement on Tuesday when it traded down to 708 points, lowest since January.

Volume slowed to an estimated 12,200 lots from 16,312 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 4,199 lots or 26% and EFP 42 lots. Options volume totaled 2,085 calls and 4,070 puts.

Mills priced a modest 168 on-call lots of old-crop cotton during the week ended last Friday to trim their unfixed July position to 30,345 lots, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission call report.

Producers priced 543 lots to shave their small unfixed position to 1,456 lots. The net call difference widened 375 lots to 28,889 (2.889 million bales), which was 24.07% of July’s declining open interest, against 23.48% a week earlier.

The unfixed mill position in July outweighed that of producers by a ratio of 20.84:1, up from 15.26:1 the prior week. Mill fixations are expected to quicken ahead of first notice day for July deliveries on June 24. Scale-down mill pricing this week may have slowed the July descent.

Producers priced 789 lots in December during a reporting week in which the new-crop contract posted two new seasonal intraday highs, reaching up to 84.74 cents on May 8. This reduced their unfixed December position to 18,401 lots.

Mills added 840 December lots to hike their unfixed position there to 12,872 lots. The net call difference held by producers narrowed by 1,629 lots to 5,529, which totaled 8.32% of December’s rising open interest, down from 11.77%.

Meanwhile, repayments reduced U.S. outstanding loans on upland cotton by 123,242 running bales during the week ended May 12, according to the latest USDA figures.

Upland loans outstanding declined to 898,866 bales, including 65,211 bales of Form A issued to individual growers and 833,655 bales of Form G issued to marketing cooperatives or loan servicing agents.

Futures open interest declined 1,420 lots Thursday to 191,108, with July’s down 1,930 lots to 114,395 and December’s up 330 lots to 68,321. Certificated stocks grew 4,031 bales to 405,712. There were 5,196 newly certified bales, 1,165 bales decertified and 4,963 bales awaiting review.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 15 points Friday morning to 92.55 cents. The premium to Thursday’s July futures settlement widened 19 points to 2.19 cents.

Forward A Index values for 2014-15 slipped 25 points to 90.05 cents, widening the discount to the 2013-14 index by 10 points to 2.50 cents and the premium to Thursday’s December futures close by a point to 7.43 cents.

For the week, the index for 2013-14 lost 175 points and the new-crop index fell 65 points.


DTN Closing Cotton Commentary          10/21 14:55

   Cotton Snaps String of Five Lower Closes

   Producers advised to keep an eye out for cotton aphids on the Texas High 
Plains.  Aphids can cause sticky cotton where bolls are open.

By Duane Howell
DTN Cotton Correspondent

   Cotton futures rallied from a 12-session low in spot December to settle 
higher Tuesday and snap a string of five consecutive lower closes.

   December gained 50 points to close at 62.79 cents, just below the middle of 
its 153-point range from down 19 points at 62.10 -- the lowest intraday price 
since Oct. 3 -- to up 134 points at 63.63 cents.

   March settled up 21 points to 61.91 cents, a couple of ticks above the 
midpoint of its tight 72-point range from down 17 points at 61.53 to up 55 
points at 62.25 cents.

   Volume slowed to an electronically estimated 17,500 lots from a final 19,212 
lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 9,716 lots or 51% and EFP 
20 lots.

   While most harvestable bolls now are safe from injury from insect pests, 
cotton aphids still could be a concern on the Texas High Plains, says Aburba 
Barman, extension entomologist at Lubbock.

   "This is especially true for plants with some open bolls and with a 
considerable amount of new growth that could be a potential site for 
development of cotton aphid populations," he said in a Focus on South Plains 
Agriculture report.

   Harvesting has begun, but some fields still have cotton with several nodes 
worth of green leaves and actively growing terminals.

   Barman said he has seen a few fields infested with cotton aphids.  In fact, 
an experimental field at Lubbock has been sprayed for the pests.

   Aphids can be either wingless or winged, but the entomologist said winged 
adults are more prevalent late in the season.  They easily can be blown over 
long distances, he said, adding that fields can be infested within a short time.

   Cotton aphids prefer young leaves, growing points, young fruits and tender 
stems, Barman said, advising checking those plant parts to spot the pests.  
Checking for beneficial insects also is a good idea, he said, because they have 
potential to suppress aphids and thus avoid insecticidal applications.

   At this time, the primary concern with aphids is whether they would cause 
sticky cotton with their honeydew, Barman pointed out.  If weather conditions 
are favorable and beneficial insect activities low, aphid populations can grow 
at a faster pace and may result in sticky cotton where there are open bolls, he 
noted.

   A quarter-inch rain sometimes can help to get rid of sticky cotton.  The 
sticky stuff can cause problems in processing.

   "It may be desirable to plan for harvest-aid applications if a field is 
ready rather than leaving the crop available for cotton aphids," Barman said.

   The threshold for aphids is 10 per leaf when there are cracked bolls on the 
plant, the entomologist said.  There are several effective insecticides for 
cotton aphids, he said.

   Futures open interest declined 494 lots Monday to 189,330, with December's 
down 1,778 lots to 94,584 and March's up 694 lots to 68,686.  Cert stocks 
remained at 15,959 bales.

   World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 35 points Tuesday 
morning to 69.70 cents, matching the low for the marketing year on Oct. 3.  The 
premiums to Monday's futures settlements widened 36 points to 7.41 cents over 
December and narrowed 32 points to 800 over March.


(RQ)

Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.


For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.
 
 
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN

Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    DTN Cotton Close: Snaps String of Five Lower Finishes10-21

    DTN Grain Close: Higher on Harvest Delay10-21

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices10-21

    USDA to Implement APH Yield Exclusion for 2015 Spring Crops10-21

    DTN Livestock Midday: Light Pressure Redevelops in Hog Futures10-21

    Arkansas: USA Rice Outlook Conference Set Dec. 7-9 in Little Rock10-21

    AgFax Cotton Review: Australian Production on Rise; Mississippi Mill Faces Closure10-21

    DTN Grain Midday: Soybeans Lead Markets Higher10-21

    DTN Cotton Open: Near Unchanged in Tight Ranges10-21

    DTN Fertilizer Trends: High Costs May Alter Growers’ Tactics for 201510-21

    DTN Livestock Open: Cattle Futures to Start Mixed10-21

    DTN Grain Open: Soybeans, Wheat Start Higher10-21

    Keith Good: Tumbling Grain Prices May Prove Costly for Taxpayers10-21

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Wheat, Soybeans Down, Slight Gains in Corn10-20

    AFB Cotton Close: Selling Accelerates10-20

    AFB Rice Close: Reverses Off Positive Early Trade10-20

    Grain TV: Export Inspections Boost Soybeans Off Lows10-20

    Doane Cotton Close: Weakness in Prices Carries On10-20

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Contracts Significantly Higher10-20

    Herbicide Resistant Weed Summit’s Slides, Webcast Available Online10-20

    Rice and Sugar: Thailand’s Quest for World Domination10-20

    AgFax Peanut Review: Portales Celebrates Peanuts Despite Plant Uncertainty10-20

    Livestock: WTO Rules Against U.S. in COOL Dispute — DTN10-20

    Wheat Scientists, Breeders Advocate Biotech Crop — DTN10-20

    Good on Grain: Storage Issues May be Less Severe Than Anticipated10-20

    Brazil Soybeans: Planting Falls Further Behind — DTN10-20

    Flint on Crops: Cover Crops Provide Many Benefits10-20

    New Holland Combine Sets Guinness Harvest Record10-18

    Rice Market: Sideways Movement Continues10-17

    Rice Crop: Delta Region Saw Harvest Delays with Storms10-17

    Rose on Cotton: Dec Contract Still Under Pressure10-17

    Cleveland on Cotton: Exports Lowest in ‘My Memory’10-17

    Brazil: Beef Production Steps Up Over Next 10 Years10-17

    Soybeans: Neonic Seed Treatment Little or No Benefit, says EPA – DTN10-17

    Informa Forecast: Soybean Acres Up 4.3M in 2015 – DTN10-17

    DTN Grain Close: Prices Down for the Day, Positive for the Week10-17

    Crop Margins Tighten, Living Expenses Not Far Behind10-17

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights10-17

    Georgia: 6 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas10-17

    Livestock: WTO Ruling on Country of Origin Labeling Expected Soon — DTN10-17

    U.S. Energy: Narrowing Brent-WTI Spread Impacts Global Crude Markets10-17

    Gasoline Prices: Show 9-Cent Decline10-17

    Propane Stocks: Rise by 0.7M Barrels10-17

    Diesel Prices: Average Decreases 4 Cents10-17

    Georgia Blueberries: State Leads Nation in Production — 96M Pounds10-17

    Farm Bill Contingency Plans: How Optimistic are You? – DTN10-16

    Arkansas Agriculture Secretary Calhoun Retiring10-16

    Georgia: Waste Pesticide Disposal, Quitman, Oct. 3010-16

    Global Ag: Ebola Hits West Africa Hard – DTN10-16

    Grain Markets: Crop Prices Up After Bearish USDA Report10-16

    Brazil Soybeans: Dry Conditions Put Planting on Hold10-16

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Rail Backlog Grows, Secondary Bids Spike10-16

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvements for Southwest, Southern CA10-16

    Coarse Grain Outlook: Record Corn Yields Produce Record Crop10-16

    Rice Outlook: U.S. Production Projection Raised to 220.7M Cwt10-16

    Resistant Weeds: USDA Accelerates the Fight — DTN10-16

    Mississippi Soybeans: Poised to Shatter Record for Average Yield10-16

    Keith Good: Beige Book — Observations on Ag Economy10-16

    Cotton Outlook: Global Stock Growth to Slow in 2014-1510-15

    Oil Crops Outlook: Soybean Prices Depressed by Historically High Supply10-15

    Sunbelt Ag Events

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney