The Latest

Events

  1. Kansas: K-State Program to Help Farmers Deal with Historic Ag Downturn

    December 7, 2016 @ 8:00 am - February 15, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  2. Louisiana: LSU Rice Clinics Scheduled Jan. 5 to Feb. 8 in 6 Locations

    December 20, 2016 @ 8:00 am - February 9, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  3. South Carolina: 4 Upcoming Forest Management Workshops for Woodland Owners

    January 12 @ 8:00 am - February 10 @ 5:00 pm
  4. Minnesota: Weed Resistance Workshops for Jan., Feb.

    January 13 @ 8:00 am - February 24 @ 5:00 pm
  5. Louisiana: LSU Offers 3 Irrigation Workshops in Jan., Feb.

    January 17 @ 8:00 am - February 14 @ 5:00 pm
  6. Illinois: 4 Regional Crop Management Conferences in Jan., Feb.

    January 18 @ 8:00 am - February 15 @ 5:00 pm
  7. Georgia Ag Forecast Series Scheduled Jan. 18-27

    January 18 @ 8:00 am - January 27 @ 5:00 pm
  8. Texas: Pecan Short Course, College Station, Jan 23-26

    January 23 @ 8:00 am - January 26 @ 5:00 pm
  9. Missouri: 9 ‘Grow Your Farm’ Sessions from Jan. – March

    January 23 @ 8:00 am - March 11 @ 5:00 pm
  10. Texas: Red River Crops Conference, Childress Jan. 24-25

    January 24 @ 8:00 am - January 25 @ 5:00 pm
  11. South Carolina: Cotton, Peanut Grower Meetings, Sentee, Jan. 24, 26

    January 24 @ 8:00 am - January 26 @ 5:00 pm
  12. Missouri: 4 Farm Retirement, Succession, Estate Planning Workshops in Jan., Feb.

    January 24 @ 8:00 am - February 14 @ 5:00 pm
  13. Arkansas Soil & Water Education Conference, Jonesboro, Jan. 25

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  14. Georgia: Cotton Production Workshop, Tifton, Jan. 25

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  15. Texas: Feed Grains Marketing Workshop, Amarillo, Jan. 25-26

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - January 26 @ 5:00 pm
  16. Virginia Eastern Shore Ag Conference and Trade Show, Melfa, Jan. 25-27

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - January 27 @ 5:00 pm
  17. Louisiana: Conservation Program Workshop, West Monroe, Jan. 25

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  18. Middle Tennessee Grain Conference, Manchester, Jan. 26

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  19. Texas: Pesticide Applicator Course, Harleton, Jan. 26

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  20. Texas: Feral Hog Program, Falfurrias, Jan. 26

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  21. Nebraska Livestock: 8 Nutrient Management Workshops in Jan. and Feb.

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - February 7 @ 5:00 pm
  22. Rice Industry: Upcoming Meetings in MS, AR, LA, in Jan., Feb.

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - February 8 @ 5:00 pm
  23. Texas: Llano Estacado Cotton Conference, Muleshoe, Jan. 30

    January 30 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  24. Texas: Feral Hog Management Workshop, La Vernia, Jan. 30

    January 30 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  25. Alabama: Upcoming Crop Production Meetings, Jan. 30, Feb. 7

    January 30 @ 8:00 am - February 7 @ 5:00 pm
  26. Indiana: Ag Business Management Workshop, West Lafayette, Jan. 31 – Feb. 2

    January 31 @ 8:00 am - February 2 @ 5:00 pm
  27. Texas: ‘Last Chance’ CEU Training, San Angelo, Jan. 31

    January 31 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  28. California: Farm Labor Management Workshops Scheduled in February

    February 1 @ 8:00 am - February 2 @ 5:00 pm
  29. Tennessee: Grain & Soybean Producers Conference, Dyersburg, Feb. 2

    February 2 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  30. Texas: Grain Elevator Workshop, Amarillo, Feb. 2

    February 2 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm

Doane Cotton Close: Weather Forecast Has Futures on Defensive

Ernst Undesser
By Ernst Undesser May 16, 2014
Forecasts for some long-awaited rain in west Texas and a historical pattern of significant “drought breaking” changes in patterns for that part of the Plains around Memorial Day have cotton futures on the defensive. Technical damage this week was severe, leading to yesterday’s counsel for futures/options users to push price protection to 50% of expected production.

Here’s the week in review: Cotton planting Monday came in at 30%, down only 4 pts from the 5-year average after closing last week’s 9 pt gap. A little rain fell in west Texas, but barely enough to moisten the topsoil. But planting progress is running at or ahead of normal pace everywhere else and other than for California, yield prospects good.

 
We’ve said for weeks that it seemed the surprising and persistent strength in old crop cotton was the only logical reason for new crop strength in the face of huge global stocks. USDA added to the bearish case with last Friday’s global supply/demand balance sheet for 2014/15 showing still further global stocks build-up. Even if you don’t count China’s stocks at all the planet is sitting on a 6-7-month supply when a 3-month supply is considered adequate buffer against weather problems for new crop.

This week’s clear topping action began when the old-crop/new-crop spread in futures began to tighten via weakness in old crop. But now the December contract shows a significant downside reversal in the low 80s. These prices actually represent a near “worst case” scenario for 2014/15 yield-wise and that means substantially more downside risk than upside potential. Thus, our advice to have half your expected production priced; unusually aggressive for this early in the crop year.

Ernst Undesser
By Ernst Undesser May 16, 2014