The Latest

Events

  1. California: Advanced Precision Farming Course Offered Online, Nov. 14 – Dec. 16

    November 14 @ 8:00 am - December 16 @ 5:00 pm
  2. Texas: Private Pesticide Applicator License Training, Dec. 6, 15

    December 6 @ 8:00 am - December 15 @ 5:00 pm
  3. Kansas: K-State Program to Help Farmers Deal with Historic Ag Downturn

    December 7, 2016 @ 8:00 am - February 15, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  4. Alabama: Corn and Wheat Short Course, Auburn, Dec. 12-13

    December 12 @ 8:00 am - December 13 @ 5:00 pm
  5. Texas: 55th Blackland Income Growth Conference, Waco, Dec. 13

    December 13 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  6. Indiana: Crop Adviser Conference, Indianapolis, Dec. 13-14

    December 13 @ 8:00 am - December 14 @ 5:00 pm
  7. Indiana: Beginning Farmer Workshop, Indianapolis, Dec. 14

    December 14 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  8. Indiana: 4 Farm Law, Taxes Workshops Available in Dec., Jan.

    December 14, 2016 @ 8:00 am - January 13, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  9. Missouri: Crop Management Conference, Columbia, Dec. 15-16

    December 15 @ 8:00 am - December 16 @ 5:00 pm
  10. Texas: Corn Growers Conference, Austin, Jan. 3-5

    January 3, 2017 @ 8:00 am - January 5, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  11. South Carolina: Ag Marketing Seminar, Myrtle Beach, Jan. 4-6

    January 4, 2017 @ 8:00 am - January 6, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  12. South Carolina: 4 Upcoming Forest Management Workshops for Woodland Owners

    January 12, 2017 @ 8:00 am - February 10, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  13. Delaware Ag Week to Feature Record-Setting Soy Farmer, Harrington, Jan. 12

    January 12, 2017 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  14. Louisiana: LSU Offers 3 Irrigation Workshops in Jan., Feb.

    January 17, 2017 @ 8:00 am - February 14, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  15. Illinois: 4 Regional Crop Management Conferences in Jan., Feb.

    January 18, 2017 @ 8:00 am - February 15, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  16. Texas: Red River Crops Conference, Childress Jan. 24-25

    January 24, 2017 @ 8:00 am - January 25, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  17. Indiana: Ag Business Management Workshop, West Lafayette, Jan. 31 – Feb. 2

    January 31, 2017 @ 8:00 am - February 2, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  18. Arkansas: Agribusiness Conference, Jonesboro, Feb. 8

    February 8, 2017 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  19. Texas: National Cotton Council Meeting, Dallas, Feb. 10-12

    February 10, 2017 @ 8:00 am - February 12, 2017 @ 5:00 pm

Shurley On Cotton: 80 Cents Is A Good Place To Start Pricing

Owen Taylor
By Don Shurley, Extension Economist, University of Georgia April 14, 2014

cotton-mature-bolls-in-row-03262014-facebook-3New crop (Dec14 futures) prices seem to have fully recovered from the most recent threat of 76 cents back in early February. Prices have now trended above the 80-cent level for the first time since last October. Dec14 closed at 81.37 today after breaking 81 on Friday.

Eighty cents net to the producer has been our target and we are there. No one is happy with just 80 cents – not a lot of profit margin at that level. But you have start somewhere and this may be a good place to make your first stab at 2014 crop pricing. Basis is very  — as small as 50 to 75 points under in some cases.

  • April USDA Numbers. The most recent production and supply/demand projections were released on Wednesday of last week. Here are the highlights:
  • US yield for the 2013 crop was lowered 20 lbs per acre to 806 lbs. The crop was reduced to 12.87 million bales—about 300K bales less than the previous estimate.
  • As a result, stocks going in to the 2014 crop marketing year were reduced to 2.5 million bales—the smallest carry-in since 1991.
  • World cotton usage (demand) was increased 240K bales.
  • China’s imports were increased 1 million bales but Usage was unchanged. Ending stocks were raised by 1 million bales.
  • World ending stocks (2014 crop year carry-in) were raised slightly but stocks outside of China were lowered (tightened) to 830K bales.

Market Outlook Factors. Despite recent and welcomed improvement, the outlook remains guarded. The expected range on prices (Dec14 futures) is 75 to 85 cents. The most pessimistic outlook would be generated by increased US and World production, flat and slow-improving demand, and increased use of stocks by China (which would lower US exports). A more optimistic scenario would be the result of lower US and World production, more improvement in demand, and China policies that would not result in significantly lower imports.

This market is comfortable at the 79- to 80-cent area, having spent the better part of the last 6 weeks in that area. This â€

Owen Taylor
By Don Shurley, Extension Economist, University of Georgia April 14, 2014