Friday, March 07, 2014
rice-head-backlit-feature-08042013.jpb

Rice Market: Expect 75,000 Additional Acres in Arkansas, Mississippi Region

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


This Week

World Market Price factors remained unchanged again this week. The on-farm value of long grain rough stays at $11.74 per cwt.

Rice futures eased somewhat this week to Friday’s settlement at 15.31, down 32.5 cents from last week’s settlement in the nearby May contract. Even though prices fell considerably, the action appeared to all be technical in nature and actually had something of a dull feel to it. The nearby does seem to be finding fairly good buying support in the 15.25 to 15.35 range, and this makes sense considering the firmness in both price and resolve of the cash market.

The continuation chart is starting to look somewhat oversold, with both short term and long term oscillators being at or near the bottom of their ranges. This does not guarantee a bounce, but it makes the wisdom of continued selling more questionable. A move back up to the 15.85/16.25 range would not be a surprise – actually it would be a surprise if it did not do that in the nearby month at some point in the next few days/weeks. Open interest is around 7,600 contracts. We continue to recommend caution in trading rice or any other futures contracts.

Exports

It was another very good week for export sales registrations, but this week the shoe was on the other foot with medium/short grain sales accounting for over 90% of the postings. Net numbers for long grain rough were 4,900 tons, and this was added to by a net long grain milled posting of only 600 tons. These are very light registrations, but this is the reality of the market at present – some weeks very low and other weeks very high.

So far, the averages look OK. Medium/short grain sales dominated this week’s report, starting with 4,000 tons of rough bought by Turkey along with 100 tons of brown purchased by Canada. Medium/short milled was the really big hitter, though, with a total of 57,100 tons. This included Japan for 38,200 tons, Turkey for 12,600 tons, Jordan for 2,400 tons, Israel for 1,000 tons, and Canada for 900 tons. Reports are that export business is slow, but the next few weeks will give us the real picture.

Physical exports for the week were very good, too.

A total of 70,100 tons moved out of the country and included 50,000 tons of long grain rough going to Mexico (23,200 tons), Panama (18,600 tons), and El Salvador (8,200 tons). Long grain milled shipments were a bit light at 5,800 tons total, split among Saudi Arabia (2,300 tons parboiled), Liberia (1,000 tons parboiled), Canada and Mexico (900 tons each). Shipments of medium/short grain rough showed 8,000 tons, all bound for Turkey. Medium/short milled and brown loadings totaled 6,300 tons and included 1,500 tons for Canada, 1,300 tons for Jordan, 700 tons for Taiwan, 700 tons for Turkey, and 300 tons of milled and brown for Japan.

 

Domestic

The Southern rough rice market continued its quiet mood this week. Once again there were no public sales in Texas and no commercial bids that we heard. It looks like some rice could be bought between the $9.50 and $9.00 premiums per cwt over loan for conventional and hybrid varieties respectively, but no one appears to be feeling any pressure to sell at present.

Something close to 20% of the old crop is estimated to still be in first hands. This rice will likely move fairly easily in the next month or so. Questions continue about just how much water will be available for a first and second crop for 2014/15. Planting is very near at hand, but there is very little talk or speculation about it.

Questions about just what the new farm bill means to rice are yet to be answered. Some medium grain has been contracted, and this will cut into whatever long grain acres there eventually are in the state. We are told that some small amount of planting from the air may be taking place in south Louisiana as the week comes to a close. As the weather clears, more will be seen, with a good bit of acres in this location going into medium grain this year. That medium grain was contracted at $25.00 per bbl, but long grain for the new crop has seen only price indications at the $22.00 per bbl and $21.25 per bbl levels for conventional and hybrid varieties fob farm.

Our understanding is that no long grain has been booked at this price range – these levels being too low for growers to accept. Planting has been delayed a bit this year, and this is of concern to some who are afraid the harvest will hit in too short a period and thus put pressure on prices. The medium grain cutting will come after long grain. There is no old crop medium grain left in first hands, and we are told that the small amount of long grain remaining can be sold for $25.00 per bbl – even though these particular producers want something closer to $26.00 per bbl fob farm.

The Delta/Arkansas region is quiet, too, with reports of export interest being slight this week.

Barge rates have increased, and this make pricing to the farmer even more difficult. In Mississippi we understand that trading continues fairly steadily at the $16.10 to $16.25 per cwt range delivered to mills. Delivered to a barge loading facility is showing a price of $15.56 per cwt, but this low number is getting very little interest from growers.

New crop will start planting close to the end of March, and something up to 75,000 acres is expected to be added back to rice from last year’s prevented planting rice acres. We are told that rice acres could have been better but that low price indications pushed some growers and their bankers into corn and/or soybeans instead.

There is no question that the return of the additional long grain rice acres in this region will dampen prices – the important question is by how much prices will be pressured. Arkansas continues to see some old crop trading close to $7.00 bu picked up at the bins, but many producers in this state are looking for prices at the $7.25 or higher level before the year is finished. There are a variety of estimates regarding the number of acres that will be brought back into rice for the 2014/15 crop year. Some are calling for 200,000 to 225,000 additional long grain acres, while others say that number will be lower due to a big addition of medium grain acres.

With planting on the horizon to begin around the second week of April, we should have a better idea over the next few weeks. We have been told of some rice already having been contracted out of the new crop, but it can’t be very much. We are also hearing that long grain price indications close to the $6.00 bu delivered mill or river are not very attractive to growers at present.

Asia

There is a lot of talk in Asia about big stocks, and this seems to be the case. At the same time, however, not a lot seems to be happening to soften prices, and there has even been a little remote speculation that some prices are poised to increase. As this week came to a close, Thai 100% Grade B old crop was quoted at $400 per ton and new crop at $435 per ton respectively fob vessel; parboiled slipped $25 on the week to finish at $440 per ton. Viet long grain 5% was slightly lower as well at $390 per ton. Pakistan’s prices remained unchanged at $400 per ton for 5% long grain and $410 per ton for parboiled. India’s prices also held steady at $419 for 5% milled and $405 for parboiled.

 

Tags: , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    AgFax Grain Review: China Approves Syngenta Corn; Turkey Bans U.S. DDG Imports12-19

    Rose on Cotton: Consider Selling Remaining Spot Cotton12-19

    Livestock: USDA Drops Checkoff Plan Following Appropriations Bill12-19

    Georgia Farmer Sets New World-Record Corn Yield – DTN12-19

    Grain TV: Basis Levels Lower at Many Crushing Plants12-19

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Futures Rebound With Triple-Digit Gains12-19

    Doane Cotton Close: Another Choppy Week Ends Slightly Ahead12-19

    Arkansas: State Plant Board Approves Enlist Duo, Dicamba Weed Control Systems12-19

    Mississippi Crop Values to Top $7B for 3rd Straight Year12-19

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Wheat, Soybeans Drop, Corn Mixed12-19

    AFB Cotton Close: Mixed as Futures Continue to Consolidate12-19

    AFB Rice Close: Strong Gains to End the Week12-19

    Texas Pecans: Moderate Deliveries, Good Demand12-19

    Oklahoma Pecans: Moderate Early Deliveries Taper Off12-19

    Cleveland on Cotton: India Stirs the Bears; China Releases Reliable Stock Estimates12-19

    Western Region Pecans: Buying Interest Good, Moderate Deliveries12-19

    Georgia Pecans: Increased Deliveries, Smaller Lots12-19

    Alfalfa: Dupont Pioneer Sells Alfalfa Seed Biz To S&W12-19

    Texas Ag Benefits from Normalized U.S.-Cuba Relations, Says Expert12-19

    Brazil Livestock: Small Scale Ranchers Account for Most Deforestation – DTN12-19

    DTN Cotton Close: Narrowly Mixed on Light Volume12-19

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights12-19

    AgFax Peanut Review: Spray Fungicides at Night; New Peanut Butter and Chocolate Ice Cream12-19

    DTN Grain Close: Wheat Pulls Back As Ruble, Oil Rally12-19

    Mississippi Soybeans: Record Yield Valued at $1.17B12-19

    DTN Livestock Midday: Feeder Cattle Post Strong Gains12-19

    DTN Grain Midday: All 3 Markets Trading Lower12-19

    Weekly Cotton Market Review12-19

    Mississippi Outdoors: Feeding Wildlife in Winter Can Cause Problems12-19

    DTN Cotton Open: Ticks Quietly Just Below Unchanged12-19

    AgFax Wildlife Review: Oklahoma Man Faces Felonies Over Wild Hogs12-19

    DTN Livestock Open: Futures to Begin Solidly Higher12-19

    DTN Grain Open: Wheat Futures Plummet12-19

    Keith Good: New Cuba Policy Could Open Huge Market for U.S. Wheat12-19

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Futures Pull Out of Price Collapse12-18

    Nitrogen Fertilizer: Oversupply, Geopolitical Risk Overshadow Strong Global Demand – DTN12-18

    China Holds Grain Import Quotas Steady, Revises Application Process – DTN12-18

    Doane Cotton Close: Choppy Sideways Action Continues12-18

    Chumrau on Wheat: USDA Raises World Estimates, No Comment on Russian Rumors12-18

    Georgia: 2015 Ag Forecast Meetings in Mid-January12-18

    John Deere Sells Crop Insurance Arm To Farmers Mutual Hail12-18

    Japan Elections Won’t Soften Trade Issues — DTN12-18

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Rail Shipments Make Big Jump12-18

    DuPont Pioneer Rolls Out New Soybean And Corn Selections For 201512-18

    Updated ARC-CO and PLC Payment Indicator for 2014 Crop Year12-18

    Livestock: Sharp Cattle Declines as Inscrutable as the Grinch – DTN12-18

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvement Expected Across California12-18

    Ag Trade Should Benefit from Thaw in U.S.-Cuba Relations12-18

    U.S. Energy: Heating Oil Expenditures Expected to Drop This Winter12-18

    Gasoline Prices: Decline in All Regions12-18

    Propane Stocks: Decrease by 0.8M Barrels12-18

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops 12 Cents12-18

    Virginia Govt. Joins USDA, EPA in Fighting Nutrient Runoff – DTN12-17

    Louisiana Pecans: Deliveries Very Light, Few Improved Varieties12-17

    Tennessee: TAPA Winter Agronomic Workshop and Cotton Focus, Jackson, Feb. 11-1212-17

    Crop Insurance: Supplemental Coverage Option Unavailable When Choosing ARC Programs12-17

    Crop Insurance: Choosing Between Base Acre Allocation Alternatives12-17

    Senate Passes Tax Extenders Bill with Key Provisions for Ag — DTN12-17

    Brazil: Amazon Deforestation Issues Concern Ag Communities – DTN12-16

    DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Global Phosphorous Demand to Increase12-16

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices12-16

    Buying Local Not Without Risks, Study Finds12-16

    U.S. Ag in Strong Position with High Avian Flu Risks Elsewhere in ’1512-16

    Grain Markets: 50-Day Moving Average Never Out of Style — DTN12-16

    Sunbelt Ag Events

    Rice News

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney