Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Good on Grain: Comparing NASS and FSA Planted Acreage Data

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released final estimates of planted and harvested crop acreage for 2013 in the Crop Production 2013 Summary report on January 10.  The USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) released its final report of planted acreage for 2013 on January 15.

There may be some misunderstanding or confusion about how the two estimates of planted acreage are generated and how the estimates should compare.

The NASS estimates of planted acreage incorporate both survey and administrative data.  The primary survey data are collected in the December Agricultural Survey of producers.  The survey is conducted by mail, phone, internet, and personal interview in all states except Hawaii.  The survey is a probability survey in the sense that operations surveyed represent a sample drawn from a list of all producers in such a way that all operations have a chance to be included.  The December 2013 survey was conducted between November 29 and December 17 with a sample size of 82,403 (NASS executive summary, released on January 10, 2014).

Respondents are asked to report the acreage of each crop planted for all purposes for all land operated by the respondent.  Based on the survey data, each state Field Office submits an estimate and written analysis to the NASS Agricultural Statistics Board. The survey data and written analysis are used along with administrative data to prepare the final estimates of planted acreage, harvested acreage, yield, and production.  The administrative data are primarily the planted acreage data reported to and summarized by the FSA.

The FSA requires producers participating in the direct and counter-cyclical payment program and the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program along with those who receive marketing assistance loans or loan deficiency payments to file an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms. Producers self-report to the FSA, but the failure to file an accurate and timely report can result in the loss of program benefits.  Producers report planted acreage, prevented acreage, and failed acreage by crop.

The planted acreage data collected by the FSA should be very accurate, but are incomplete because not all producers are required to report.  In contrast, the NASS estimates are for all planted acreage, but the estimates are subject to sampling error since not every producer is surveyed.  The NASS estimates of planted acreage of each crop should be larger than the FSA estimates since not all producers participate in FSA programs.  The relationship between the two estimates should be generally consistent from year to year since NASS uses the FSA estimates as input for final estimates.  Variation in the magnitude of the differences from year to year could reflect such things as differing rates of participation in FSA programs and NASS sampling errors.

For 2013, the final NASS estimate of planted acreage of corn was 95.365 million acres while the final acreage reported to FSA was 92.399 million acres.  The difference was 2.966 million acres, with the FSA acreage estimate representing 96.89 percent of the NASS estimate.  These relationships are within the range of the differences in the previous six years when the difference between the two estimates ranged from 2.381 million acres to 3.295 million acres and the FSA estimate ranged from 96.42 to 97.45 percent of the NASS estimate.

For soybeans, the final NASS estimate of planted acreage in 2013 was 76.533 million acres, while the final acreage reported to FSA was 75.299 million acres.  The difference was 1.234 million acres, with the FSA acreage estimate representing 98.39 percent of the NASS estimate.  These relationships are within the range of the differences in the previous six years when the difference between the two estimates ranged from 0.917 million acres to 1.884 million acres and the FSA estimate ranged from 97.09 to 98.79 percent of the NASS estimate.

For wheat, the final NASS estimate of planted acreage in 2013 was 56.156 million acres while the final acreage reported to FSA was 53.775 million acres.  The difference was 2.381 million acres, with the FSA acreage estimate representing 95.76 percent of the NASS estimate.  These relationships are within the range of the differences in the previous six years when the difference between the two estimates ranged from 1.171 million acres to 2.779 million acres and the FSA estimate ranged from 94.81 to 98.06 percent of the NASS estimate.

The relationship between FSA and NASS planted acreage estimates can be useful in forming early expectations of the NASS final acreage estimates. FSA releases reports of planted acreage monthly from August through January, reflecting the producer reports received and processed to date.

Beginning In October, NASS formally uses the FSA estimates as input into their estimates.  In most years, however, the September FSA estimates are close to the final FSA estimates, or can be used to anticipate final FSA estimates, and therefore final NASS estimates. The FSA estimates in September 2013, for example, provided an early indication that NASS September corn and soybean acreage estimates were too high, having not yet fully reflected the magnitude of prevented plantings.

To see the original article click here.

Darrel Good

Tags: , , , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    Grain TV: China Lowers Soybean Reserve Requirement4-20

    DTN Livestock Close: Future Crash Hard Out of the Gate4-20

    Georgia: UGA Seeks Public Help Tracking Brown Marmorated Stink Bug4-20

    6 Need-To-Know Things About Tree Crops This Week – AgFax Video4-20

    Welch on Wheat: Crop Conditions Unchanged4-20

    Crop Progress: Spring Wheat Planting Jumps, Other Crops Still Slow – DTN4-20

    Welch on Grain: Corn Planting Just Behind Average4-20

    Corn: Website Helps Identify, Respond to Ear Rots4-20

    DTN Cotton Close: Moderate to Heavy Rains in Southeast4-20

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Improved Weather Weighs on Corn4-20

    California Cotton: Damaged Roots Prompt Some Mite Treatments – Podcast4-20

    AFB Cotton Close: Slowing Global Market4-20

    AFB Rice Close: Stocks Continue to Weigh on Prices4-20

    DTN Grain Close: Commercial Buying in Soybeans, Wheat4-20

    Wheat: Kansas Researchers Produce Break Through Genetic Study4-20

    GMO Crops: Plant Gene May Stop Contamination of Conventional Crops4-20

    Good on Grain: Will Soybean Consumption Reach the USDA Projection?4-20

    Beef is Far From a Loser at Dinner Time, But It’s Not Exactly the Big Winner – DTN4-20

    DTN Livestock Midday: Long Liquidation and Technical Selling4-20

    DTN Grain Midday: Improvement in Chinese Values4-20

    Texas Wheat: Multi-County Field Tour, Taylor County, May 14-20

    Upland Cotton Genome Unlocked, 1st Step Towards Better Varieties4-20

    Grain Sorghum: Cruiser 5FS Seed Treatment Approved for Sugarcane Aphids4-20

    DTN Cotton Open: China Stimulates Slowing Economy4-20

    Flint on Crops: 4 Priorities for a High Level of Crop Success4-20

    DTN Grain Open: Little Influence from U.S. Dollar Index4-20

    DTN Livestock Open: New Offerings Suspected to be Larger4-20

    Way on Rice: Sugarcane Aphid – Scout Your Sorghum Crop4-18

    Rice Crop: Planting Moves Ahead Despite Rain Delays in Some Areas4-18

    Rice Market: Futures Dipped, But Didn’t Fall Out of Bed4-18

    Tweet of the Week: No Fertilizer – Warning to Landlords4-17

    Cleveland on Cotton: Trading Range Stretching Topside; MidSouth Water Logged4-17

    Rose on Cotton: Spring Rally Coming. Are You Ready?4-17

    Grain TV: Rains Expected to Relieve Wheat Belt Concerns4-17

    Old World Bollworm Arrival Eminent: USDA Invests $1.2M in Detection, Control – DTN4-17

    Rice Planting Stalls Out During A Really Wet Week – AgFax4-17

    How Will China’s Investments in Agriculture Affect U.S. Producers?4-17

    Southern Corn – More Rain Delays And Chance For Smaller Plantings – AgFax4-17

    Conservation Compliance: 5 Steps Needed Before June 1 Deadline4-17

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights4-17

    Georgia Cotton: No Counter 20G Approval for 20154-17

    Wheat, Feed Grains, and Oilseeds: 2015 Loan Rates Announced – USDA4-17

    Weekly Cotton Market Review – USDA4-17

    Bird Flu Causes Export Bans, Corn and Beef Could Take a Hit – DTN4-17

    Dried Distillers Grain: Short Supplies and “a Disinterested Market” – DTN4-17

    Mississippi: Temperature, Moisture Determine Planting Time4-17

    Moving Grains: Barge Rates Increase with High Water Levels4-16

    USDA Reminds Farmers to Certify Conservation Compliance by June 1 Deadline4-16

    South Carolina Cotton: Counter 20G Not Approved for 20154-16

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvements Expected Across the Plains4-16

    Drought Monitor: Mississippi River, Gulf Coast Get Drenched4-16

    Alfalfa Weevils Expected to Be More Active, Scout Fields Regularly – DTN4-16

    U.S. Drought Monitor Quick Look Video – AgFax4-16

    Texas Fertilizer Fire, 2013: What Did We Learn? – DTN4-16

    Wild Hog Wrestling: Don’t Try This at Home – Video4-16

    Good on Grain: Projecting the Corn Balance Sheet, Price Implications4-16

    U.S. Aquaculture Sales: 42% Crustaceans; 57% Alligators From Louisiana4-16

    Texas: 6 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought4-16

    Kansas: 2 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas; Assistance to Oklahoma4-16

    Grain Risk Management: Alternatives for Soybeans Better than Corn4-16

    Bt Resistance: Straight Talk from Midwest Consultants – Agfax4-15

    Propane Stocks Continue Climb4-15

    Gasoline: Strong Regional Price Movements4-15

    Diesel Prices Move Lower4-15

    5 Tips to Stay Successful in an Ever-Changing Agriculture Market – DTN4-15

    Former Canadian Wheat Board to Be Privatized After U.S., Saudi Buyout – DTN4-15

    5 Business Practices to Take Home From Ethiopian Farmers – DTN4-15

    Texas: 6 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas4-15

    Sunbelt Ag Events

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney +