Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Good on Grain: Comparing NASS and FSA Planted Acreage Data

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released final estimates of planted and harvested crop acreage for 2013 in the Crop Production 2013 Summary report on January 10.  The USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) released its final report of planted acreage for 2013 on January 15.

There may be some misunderstanding or confusion about how the two estimates of planted acreage are generated and how the estimates should compare.

 

The NASS estimates of planted acreage incorporate both survey and administrative data.  The primary survey data are collected in the December Agricultural Survey of producers.  The survey is conducted by mail, phone, internet, and personal interview in all states except Hawaii.  The survey is a probability survey in the sense that operations surveyed represent a sample drawn from a list of all producers in such a way that all operations have a chance to be included.  The December 2013 survey was conducted between November 29 and December 17 with a sample size of 82,403 (NASS executive summary, released on January 10, 2014).

Respondents are asked to report the acreage of each crop planted for all purposes for all land operated by the respondent.  Based on the survey data, each state Field Office submits an estimate and written analysis to the NASS Agricultural Statistics Board. The survey data and written analysis are used along with administrative data to prepare the final estimates of planted acreage, harvested acreage, yield, and production.  The administrative data are primarily the planted acreage data reported to and summarized by the FSA.

The FSA requires producers participating in the direct and counter-cyclical payment program and the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program along with those who receive marketing assistance loans or loan deficiency payments to file an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms. Producers self-report to the FSA, but the failure to file an accurate and timely report can result in the loss of program benefits.  Producers report planted acreage, prevented acreage, and failed acreage by crop.

The planted acreage data collected by the FSA should be very accurate, but are incomplete because not all producers are required to report.  In contrast, the NASS estimates are for all planted acreage, but the estimates are subject to sampling error since not every producer is surveyed.  The NASS estimates of planted acreage of each crop should be larger than the FSA estimates since not all producers participate in FSA programs.  The relationship between the two estimates should be generally consistent from year to year since NASS uses the FSA estimates as input for final estimates.  Variation in the magnitude of the differences from year to year could reflect such things as differing rates of participation in FSA programs and NASS sampling errors.

For 2013, the final NASS estimate of planted acreage of corn was 95.365 million acres while the final acreage reported to FSA was 92.399 million acres.  The difference was 2.966 million acres, with the FSA acreage estimate representing 96.89 percent of the NASS estimate.  These relationships are within the range of the differences in the previous six years when the difference between the two estimates ranged from 2.381 million acres to 3.295 million acres and the FSA estimate ranged from 96.42 to 97.45 percent of the NASS estimate.

For soybeans, the final NASS estimate of planted acreage in 2013 was 76.533 million acres, while the final acreage reported to FSA was 75.299 million acres.  The difference was 1.234 million acres, with the FSA acreage estimate representing 98.39 percent of the NASS estimate.  These relationships are within the range of the differences in the previous six years when the difference between the two estimates ranged from 0.917 million acres to 1.884 million acres and the FSA estimate ranged from 97.09 to 98.79 percent of the NASS estimate.

For wheat, the final NASS estimate of planted acreage in 2013 was 56.156 million acres while the final acreage reported to FSA was 53.775 million acres.  The difference was 2.381 million acres, with the FSA acreage estimate representing 95.76 percent of the NASS estimate.  These relationships are within the range of the differences in the previous six years when the difference between the two estimates ranged from 1.171 million acres to 2.779 million acres and the FSA estimate ranged from 94.81 to 98.06 percent of the NASS estimate.

The relationship between FSA and NASS planted acreage estimates can be useful in forming early expectations of the NASS final acreage estimates. FSA releases reports of planted acreage monthly from August through January, reflecting the producer reports received and processed to date.

Beginning In October, NASS formally uses the FSA estimates as input into their estimates.  In most years, however, the September FSA estimates are close to the final FSA estimates, or can be used to anticipate final FSA estimates, and therefore final NASS estimates. The FSA estimates in September 2013, for example, provided an early indication that NASS September corn and soybean acreage estimates were too high, having not yet fully reflected the magnitude of prevented plantings.

To see the original article click here.

Darrel Good

Tags: , , , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    U.S. Rice: Planting Decisions Stalled; Alternative Crops Considered1-30

    AgFax Cotton Review: Harvest a Mixed Bag for Texas Growers; India Sells Off Stockpiles1-30

    Rice Market World: Prices Low – But More Positives Than Negatvies1-30

    AgFax Grain Review: Neonics Use Critical; Soybean Prices to Drop, Corn May Rally1-30

    Peanuts: Bankrupt Texoma Sells Mississippi Buy, Dry Facility1-30

    Florida Peanuts: Done Right, Rotation Adds Thousands Of Pounds1-30

    Grain TV: Soybean Year-to-Date Exports Lower than 20141-30

    Cleveland on Cotton: World Consumption Increases; Will U.S. Sell Out?1-30

    Rose on Cotton: Demand is Hot; Anticipate a Pre-Plant Rally1-30

    Biofuel Industry Threatened with Shutdown – DTN1-30

    DTN Livestock Close: Positive Day for Cattle1-30

    Welch on Wheat: Texas Conditions Decline, Still Above Average1-30

    Doane Cotton Close: Strong Exports Don’t Provide Strong Support1-30

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: General Weakness Continues1-30

    AFB Cotton Close: Narrow Trade Ends Lower1-30

    AFB Rice Close: Hard Sell Off1-30

    Harvard Farm Boy to Show Fellow Students Real Farmers – DTN1-30

    Welch on Grain: Corn, Sorghum Continue to See Strong Exports1-30

    DTN Cotton Close: Tight Trade Ends at Midrange1-30

    2015 Is International Year of the Soils – Video1-30

    Catfish Production Acres Declined 10%1-30

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights1-30

    DTN Grain Close: Late Corn Rally1-30

    Weekly Cotton Market Review1-30

    DTN Livestock Midday: Cattle Futures Bounce Higher1-30

    DTN Grain Midday: Corn, Soybeans Lead Drop1-30

    Farm Management: 3 Reasons to Praise A Job Well Done – DTN1-30

    Farming: Leaner Profits Drive Farm Loans – Not Equipment Purchases1-30

    Ethanol Remains Competitive as Gasoline Blend Despite Price1-30

    DTN Cotton Open: Futures Start off Lower1-30

    DTN Livestock Open: Aggressive Pressure to Continue1-30

    Bt Corn Hybrid Manufacturers May Face New EPA Rules1-30

    DTN Grain Open: Trade Begins Quietly Higher1-30

    Georgia Cotton: Glyphosate-Resistant Pigweed Fight Requires Vigilance1-30

    Keith Good: $4.8 Billion Hit to Farm Program Possible Over 10 Years1-30

    Mississippi River Locks – ‘Held Together with Baling Wire and Duct Tape’ – DTN1-29

    Senate Passes Keystone Bill, Unable to Get Supermajority – DTN1-29

    ELS Cotton Competitive Payment Rate Is Zero1-29

    California: New Robotic Weeder to Save Time, Money1-29

    Peanut Stocks: Utilization Up 6% from Last Year1-29

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Corn Inspections Highest Since October1-29

    North Carolina: Cotton Variety Performance Data Available1-29

    Texas Pecans: Trade Slow as Harvest Winds Down1-29

    Western Region Pecans: Light Deliveries, Harvest Nearly Done1-29

    U.S. Energy: Market Balances Seen in Changing Futures Price Spreads1-29

    Gasoline Prices: Average Declines Again1-29

    Propane Stocks: Down 1.9M Barrels1-29

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops 7 Cents1-29

    North Carolina: Feb. 4 Meeting Looks At Crop Mix, Marketing Decisions For 20151-28

    Biodiesel: Policy Incentives Necessary for Profitability1-28

    AgFax Peanut Review: Peanut Protein Cure for Nut Allergy?1-28

    DTN Fertilizer Trends: Fewer Pre-Purchases Than Normal1-28

    Ag Lenders’ Sentiment – Latest National Survey From K-State – (Audio)1-28

    Drones – The Next Big Tool in Agriculture1-28

    AgFax Rice Review: Govt. Action Requested Over Iraq Trade; Japan May Increase U.S. Imports1-28

    Seramas: Little Chickens With Great Personality1-28

    Ag Fuel Costs Likely to Dip, Chemicals to Rise in 2015 — DTN1-28

    Seed Companies Expected to Hold Line on Price Increases — DTN1-28

    Soybeans: Higher Protein Levels Mean Better Quality, Better Prices – DTN1-27

    Crop Insurance: Most Corn Farmers Opting for PLC – DTN1-27

    Soybean Rust Turns Up In Louisiana On Kudzu1-27

    Florida: AgSave Summit Meetings, Feb. 231-27

    Crop Insurance: Difference in Expected Program Payments1-27

    Wild Hogs: North Carolina Hunter Scores Record Kill1-27

    Soybeans: East Coast Winter Weather Is No Match for Biodiesel1-27

    Cotton: Industry Recognizes Utah Researcher For Cotton Genome Efforts1-27

    Corn and Soybean Market: Consumption is the Story1-27

    Sunbelt Ag Events

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney