Sunday, December 15, 2013
Rice Heads.

Rice Exports Disappointing As Holiday Trading Approaches

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


This month’s Supply/Demand Report from USDA was very little different from November, with only two changes in the long grain figures and no changes in the medium/short grain projections.

Long grain imports were lowered by 1 million cwts, and this translated into a decrease of the same amount in the long grain ending stocks – now projected by USDA at 17.4 million cwts.

We think this will be much, much lower – unless exports just come to a dead halt. The other long grain change was an increase of 30 cents on each end of the average on-farm price up to $14.80 – $15.80. These are more reasonable estimates, in our opinion, especially on the higher end.

USDA raised WMP factors this week by 20 cents on both long grain rough and medium/short grain rough, which moved the on-farm WMP value of long grain rough up to $12.03 per cwt.

The weekly export sales report showed a disappointing 12,900 tons. This could have been due to things other than just weak sales: timing of reports, weather holding up barges, early holidays, etc.

In any case, we will have to see what the next few weeks show us – into January. Less than a thousand tons of long grain paddy were posted, and long grain milled sales were only 4,800 tons headed mostly to Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Medium/short rough and brown each posted 100 tons, and medium/short milled showed 7,300 tons sold, primarily to Turkey, Lebanon, Canada, and Japan.

Physical exports for the week were on track at a solid 63,600 tons, of which 36,800 tons were long grain rough shipped to Mexico (21,400 tons), Costa Rica (12,300 tons), and Honduras (3,200 tons). Long grain milled shipments were light at 2,800 tons mostly to Mexico and Canada. Medium/short grain milled and rough shipments totaled 23,800 tons, with Japan loading out 12,500 tons, followed by Jordan and 4,900 tons, south Korea with 2,900 tons, and Canada with 1,400 tons; Turkey also shipped out 300 tons of rough. Shipments may well slow down during the Christmas holidays.

i

Asian prices seem to have a stronger tone, but they are really still just drifting in the same ranges we’ve seen for several weeks now. Thai 100% Grade B closed the week at $405 per ton fob vessel, and Thai parboiled was at $455 per ton. Viet 5% long grain milled was reported at $425 per ton – fairly firm actually. Pakistan’s 5% milled long grain was noted at $385 per ton, with Pakistani parboiled priced at $430 per ton. Indian 5% long grain milled was called $410 per ton, while parboiled was at $400 per ton.

It was another sideways week for rice futures, with the nearby Jan contract closing at 15.545 – unchanged from last Friday’s settlement, but up 8.5 cents on the day. It has looked to us like the nearby market should (and it certainly still could) fall into the area of 15.20 in order to attract some commercial buying, but it just doesn’t seem to get the downward follow-through to go lower.

It may be that some commercials are getting ahead of the market for next year. We would not be surprised to see a drop in the nearby into the low $15 range, but, at the same time, we would be only slightly surprised to see it go back up from here. The chart signals are mixed, and with “holiday trading” getting ready to set in, anything can happen.

Volume has been low but not unreasonably so, and open interest has dropped off considerably – now at 7,637 as of Thursday’s close. Low open interest is generally a bearish sign, but that will probably not be the case this time.

We think prices will have to go back into the $16 range before this crop year is all said and done. We urge caution and care if trading rice or any other futures contracts.

We continue to believe that this year’s long grain crop will prove to be a very, very tight one, and this will manifest itself well before any new crop is even close to harvesting.

Tags: , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    DTN Cotton Open: Tumbles in Most-Active July4-23

    Senate Expected to Pass Upcoming Tax-Extenders Bill – DTN (Updated)4-23

    Exploring Key Elements in Succession Planning — DTN4-23

    DTN Livestock Open: Lower Start for Lean Hogs4-23

    DTN Grain Open: Soybeans Sink, Pull Others Down4-23

    Keith Good: Are Grain Producers Braced for Downturn?; El Nino in July?4-23

    Grain TV: Upward Trend Lines Unbroken4-22

    Doane Cotton Close: Futures Continue Slow, Steady Ascent4-22

    DTN Livestock Close: Futures Move Higher4-22

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Beans Continue Decline, Corn, Wheat Move Higher4-22

    AFB Cotton Close: Prices Continue Higher4-22

    AFB Rice Close: Unchanged to Slightly Higher4-22

    Welch on Grain: Modest Increase in Planted Corn Acres4-22

    Cotton: Smaller Pima Plantings Expected for 2014/154-22

    Welch on Wheat: Condition Decline Continues4-22

    DTN Cotton Close: Strong Old-Crop Gains4-22

    Mississippi: MSU Extension Marks Its 1st Century4-22

    DTN Grain Close: Corn Rebounds with Export Help4-22

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices4-22

    Ethanol Campaign Ramps Up as EPA Decision Nears – DTN4-22

    DTN Livestock Midday: Cattle Futures Hold Strong Gains4-22

    Mid-South Ag, Environmental Law Conference Set May 16 in Tunica, Miss.4-22

    DTN Grain Midday: Soybeans, Wheat Slide Lower4-22

    AgFax Grain Review: Chinese Rejections Continue; Still Time to Plant Corn4-22

    DTN Fertilizer Trends: Prices Higher for 9th Straight Week4-22

    Pinnacle Acquires Harvey’s Agricultural Solutions4-21

    Livestock: U.S. at Disadvantage in Japan Trade Deal – DTN4-21

    Chemtura AgroSolutions Acquired by Platform Specialty Products4-21

    Indiana: Beck’s Hybrids Expands with $60M Investment4-21

    Wheat Resistance Gene Found Against Stem Rust Pathogen4-21

    Wheat: Study to Develop Climate-Resilient Varieties4-21

    North Carolina Wheat: Head Scab Alert Issued For Eastern Areas4-21

    Good on Grain: How Many Soybean Acres Do We Really Need?4-21

    4 Factors That Have Reshaped Agriculture in Last 10 Years — DTN4-21

    Texas Explosion Prompts Subtle Changes in Fertilizer Industry — DTN4-21

    Flint on Crops: Reniform Nematode Continues to Plague Us4-21

    Southern Grain: Freeze Effects? Corn Planting Slogs Along – AgFax4-19

    Arctic Warming Tied to Our Extreme Weather? Maybe. – DTN4-18

    Do Soybeans Need Nitrogen?4-18

    Is There An Advantage To More Corn Acres in Your Rotation? Yes and No.4-18

    Texas Rice: Garry McCauley Retires After 39 Years and Many Accomplishments4-18

    Rice Farmers In Midsouth Looking For A Break In The Weather – AgFax4-18

    Cleveland on Cotton: Nervous Market Nellies; Chinese Plant 20-25% Less4-17

    Grain TV: River Basis Levels See Large Rise4-17

    Chumrau on Wheat: World Supplies Get a Lift, but U.S. Stocks Look Tight4-17

    Mississippi: MSU Offers Four Deer Management Workshops This Summer4-17

    Mapping the Farm Bill: Voting Changes in the House of Representatives4-17

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights4-17

    Texas: Grain Grading Workshops, Amarillo, May 6-74-17

    Mississippi: State Soybean Value Grew $1B Since 20064-17

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvement Expected in Midwest, Central and Southern Great Plains4-17

    Farm Finances Rate an ‘A’ For Now, but Questions Linger — DTN4-17

    Mississippi: Top of the List for Water Resouces4-17

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Upper Mississippi Navigation Improves4-17

    Resistant Palmer Pigweed: What People Need To Know Before It Hits – AgFax4-17

    Chemical Safety Board Plans Meeting in West, Texas — DTN4-17

    West, Texas, Recovers and Rebuilds with Cautious Approach — DTN4-17

    U.S. Energy: Oil and Gas Spending Favors Exploration, Development4-17

    Gasoline Prices: Average Jumps 6 Cents4-17

    Propane Stocks: Increase by 0.8M Barrels4-17

    Diesel Prices: Average Down a Penny4-17

    Victims of Texas Fertilizer Plant Explosion Remembered — DTN4-17

    Keith Good: Beige Book — Observations on Ag Economy4-17

    Sunbelt Ag Events

    Rice News

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney