Agfax Buzz:
    November 8, 2013
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    Largest Corn and 3rd Largest Soybean Harvests on Record

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    By Katie Micik, DTN/Telvent

    USDA expects the soybean crop to be 3.258 billion bushels, 3% larger than it estimated in September. That national average soybean yield increased to 43 bushels per acre, in line with trade expectations.

    USDA pegged the corn crop at a record 13.989 billion bushels with a national average yield of 160.4 bpa, USDA said. That compares to September’s estimates of 13.84 bb and 155.3 bpa. The corn estimates were also in line with trade expectations.

    USDA updated acreage in its Friday morning Crop Production report, something it usually does in the October report, which was cancelled due to the 16-day government shutdown. Corn harvested acreage was cut by 1.9 million acres to 87.23 million acres, a decline of 2%. USDA trimmed soybean harvested acreage to 75.69 million acres, a decline of about 700,000 acres from September’s estimates.

     

    Corn ending stocks came in below the range of trade expectations at 1.887 billion bushels, largely due to USDA boosting feed usage by 100 mb and exports by 175 mb from its September estimates.

    Soybean ending stocks, at 170 mb, came in toward the low end of pre-report estimates. USDA upwardly revised domestic crushings by 30 mb and exports by 80 mb. It trimmed 6 mb from the residual use category.

    Crop Production: here.

    World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): here.

    CORN

    USDA’s record corn production forecast shifted the supply and demand dynamics, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released at 11 a.m. CST.

    The larger supply will spark increased demand for feed and exports, but it also lead to a lower average farm price, which USDA now pegs at $4.50 versus $4.80 last September. USDA’s ending stocks estimate was only 32 mb higher than September, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio stayed the same at 14.6%.

    Globally, USDA made changes to 2012-13 and 2013-14 ending stocks. USDA revised 2012-13 ending stocks 134.89 million metric tons compared to 122.59 mmt last September. For the current crop year, USDA increased ending stocks estimates to 164.33 mmt from 151.42 mmt last September.

    USDA also cut Brazil’s corn production estimate for 2013-14 by 2 mmt to 70 mmt.

    SOYBEANS

    USDA’s soybean production forecast increased by 3% from its last estimate. If it’s realized, it’ll be the third largest U.S. crop on record.

    USDA made several changes to the soybean supply and demand balance sheet as well, and those also resulted in a lower average farm price. USDA now pegs the average new-crop price at $12.15 per bushel, compared to $12.50 in September.

    The 2013-14 domestic stocks-to-use ratio grew to 5.2% from September’s 4.8% estimate.

    Globally, USDA sees world stocks declining. Its old-crop (2012-13) estimates decreased to 60.11 mmt from 61.55 mmt in September. New-crop estimates also fell to 70.23 mmt from last September’s estimate of 71.54 mmt.

    USDA left South American soybean estimates unchanged. Brazil’s expected to produce 88 mmt while Argentina’s expected to raise 53.5 mmt.

    WHEAT

    USDA made a few adjustments to September’s Small Grains Summary because it resurveyed areas due to harvest delays. USDA increased all wheat production 16 mb to 2.130 billion bushels.

    USDA expects 30 mb more to be feed to livestock than it forecast in September. It left its export projects unchanged at 1.1 bb, which is 93 mb higher than last year’s exports.

    Ending stocks grew 4 mb to 565 mb and the stocks-to-use ratio declined by a tenth of a percentage point to 23.2%.

    Global ending stocks increased for both new and old crops, USDA said. For 2012-13, USDA upped ending stocks to 175.59 mmt from 173.85 mmt. For new crop, ending stocks came in at 178.48 mmt, and increase from September’s 176.28 mmt.

    USDA boosted Canada’s 2013-14 production by 1.7 mmt to 33.2 mmt.

    ANALYSIS:

    U.S. – U.S. corn production came in just below 14 billion bushels, under pre-report estimates due to smaller-than-expected harvested acres, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. “Soybean production of 3.258 bb was above expectations though could be viewed as neutral.”

    “Corn ending stocks of about 1.9 bb, while bearish, could spark buying interest due to it being lower than expected. The same could be said for soybeans at 170 mb. Domestic soybean export demand saw a large increase from September’s projection of 1.370 bb to 1.450 bb. Wheat ending stocks were larger than expected at 565 mb,” Newsom said.

    WORLD – Global ending stocks of corn came in well above the September estimate, now projected at 164.3 mmt. On the other hand, soybeans were slightly below what was projected in September but continue to hold above 70 mmt. Wheat ending stocks climbed about 2.2 mmt to 178.48 mmt. “The WASDE report in general could be viewed as neutral to bearish,” Newsom said.

    U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2013-14

    Nov

    Avg

    High

    Low

    Sep

    2012-13

    Corn

    13,989

    14,022

    14,330

    13,421

    13,843

    10,780

    Soybeans

    3,258

    3,225

    3,293

    3,123

    3,149

    3,015

    Grain Sorghum

    416

    401

    406

    396

    396

    247

    U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (2013-14)
    million acres

    Nov

    Avg

    High

    Low

    Sep

    2012-13

    Corn

    87.2

    88.1

    89.1

    86.9

    89.1

    87.4

    Soybeans

    75.7

    75.9

    76.4

    75.4

    76.4

    76.1

    U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2013-14

    Nov

    Avg

    High

    Low

    Sep

    2012-13

    Corn

    160.4

    159.4

    163.3

    157.1

    155.3

    123.4

    Soybeans

    43.0

    42.5

    43.3

    41.2

    41.2

    39.6

    U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2013-14

    Sep

    Nov

    Avg

    High

    Low

    Sep

    2012-13

    2012-13

    Corn

    1,887

    2,056

    2,292

    1,904

    1,855

    661

    824*

    Soybeans

    170

    183

    240

    150

    150

    125

    141*

    Grain Sorghum

    31

    32

    35

    29

    29

    13

    15*

    Wheat

    565

    527

    576

    532

    561

    718

    718

    * Adjusted September quarterly stocks numbers
    WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Metric Tons)
    2013-14 2012-13

    Nov

    Sep

    Nov

    Sep

    Wheat

    178.48

    176.28

    175.59

    173.85

    Corn

    164.33

    151.42

    134.86

    122.59

    Soybeans

    70.23

    71.54

    60.11

    61.55

    WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)

    2013-14

    2012-13

    Nov

    Sep

    Nov

    Sep

    Australia wheat

    25.5

    25.5

    22.1

    22.1

    Canada wheat

    33.2

    31.5

    27.2

    27.2

    Argentine corn

    26.0

    26.0

    26.5

    26.5

    Brazil corn

    70.0

    72.0

    81.0

    81.0

    Brazil soybeans

    88.0

    88.0

    82.0

    82.0

    Argentine soybeans

    53.5

    53.5

    49.3

    49.4

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