Agfax Buzz:
    October 19, 2013
    rice-head-backlit-feature-08042013.jpb

    Rice Market: Export Sales Probably Light

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    From US Rice Producers Association's Rice Advocate

    Even though the government says it’s officially back to work, there are still no World Market Price, Export Sales or Export Shipment reports coming out for agriculture most likely until next week or the next.

    The regular monthly reports will probably be back on schedule in November, but USDA has already announced that there will be no October reports.

    As far as export sales are concerned, they still look light to us, with the exception, of course, of the 40,000 tons of long grain milled sold to Iraq (so good to see them back buying US rice after such a long absence) and the 17,555 tons of long grain sold to Colombia under the TRQ arrangement.

    Even if it turns out to be correct that export sales over the last few weeks have been light, we believe that milled buying from Mexico and Central America will pick as the year moves forward.

    Exports are indeed very important to US long grain rice, but with such a tight crop this year, the domestic buyers will most likely be the sector to set the pace in obtaining stocks to run all year and into new crop in 2014.

    Prices in Asia just keep bumping along at fairly low price levels.

    Thai 100% Grade B eased slightly from last Friday to be quoted at $420 per ton fob vessel this Friday, with Thai parboiled holding at $435 per ton.

    Viet 5% long grain milled was somewhat stronger at $400 per ton.

    Pakistan was on holiday late in the week, but the last quotes from that market were $385 per ton for 5% milled and $425 per ton for parboiled.

    India closed out the week with its 5% long grain milled at $420 per ton and its parboiled at $410 per ton, up by $5 from last Friday.

    From last Friday’s settlement in the nearby Nov at 15.115, rice futures made a nice run to a high of 15.525 during the week.

    It seems to be running into some technical resistance around this level, and that brought in some selling on Friday to settle the market at 15.29, down 16 on the day, but still up 7.5 cents on the week.

    There was some substantial short covering during the week, and we suspect more of that will be seen next week – or until prices get closer to the upper range of the Bollinger Bands. With more rolling from the Nov into the Jan to be seen next week, it will be interesting to see just how the hedge funds’ speculative mindset works with the fundamentals of US long grain.


    Tags:

    Leave a Reply

    Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

    Agfax Rice News

    Chicago Board of Trade Closed Monday, Labor Day – September 18-29

    Rice Crop: Looking for a Normal Crop, Not a Bumper8-29

    Rice Market: Being Short Tricky but Being Long Takes Patience8-29

    Arkansas Rice: Drier Weather Lets Combines Hit Fields8-29

    AFB Rice Close: Futures Chart New Leg Down8-29

    Arkansas: Flood Damage to Crops Valued at $35.6M8-29

    Farm Payments to Stakeholders Rise as Gov. Payments Decline – USDA8-29

    Young Farmer in Your Future? – Helping Him or Her is Key to Success. – DTN8-29

    Net Farm Income Forecast to Fall,10.6% Decline Crop Value – USDA8-29

    Keith Good: Corn, Soybean Farmers May Face Financial Pinch in 20158-29

    AFB Rice Close: Futures Lower Across the Board8-28

    Missouri Rice: Managing Fall Armyworms8-28

    Missouri: Moth Trap Data for Bootheel Pests8-28

    Rice Harvest Eases Into Gear In Midsouth – AgFax8-28

    Farm Drones Under Scrutiny: Farmers Impatient for FAA Ruling – DTN8-28

    AgFax Rice Review: China Could Be Big U.S. Market; Drip Irrigation Good for Yields, Environment8-28

    Farm Program Decisions Hinge on Uncertain 2014 Crop Prices8-28

    John Deere Lays Off 460 from Waterloo, Iowa Factory8-28

    U.S. Energy: Retail Gas Prices Follow Crude Prices Lower8-28

    Gasoline Prices: Decline by 2 Cents8-28

    Propane Stocks: Up to 74.7M Barrels8-28

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops a Penny8-28

    Keith Good: Map Controversy Puts EPA on Defensive about Water Rule8-28

    AFB Rice Close: Mostly Higher with Slight Losses in Sept.8-27

    Louisiana: Rice Farmers Learn Latest on LSU Disease Research8-27

    Farm Groups Map Waters to Block Clean Water Act Changes – DTN8-27

    Southwest May Face ‘Megadrought’ This Century, Say Scientists8-27

    Rough Rice: Stocks Down 13 Percent from August 2013 — USDA8-27

    Keith Good: Net Farm Income Forecast at $113.2B, Down 13.8% from 20138-27

    DTN Fertilizer Trends: Prices Unlikely to See Significant Declines8-26

    AFB Rice Close: Trades Lower withing Yesterday’s Range8-26

    Your Farm Business and the Affordable Care Act8-26

    Texas Crop Weather: Watch for Armyworms in Heading Sorghum8-26

    Keith Good: Farm Incomes, Capital Spending Show Decline in 2nd Quarter8-26

    AFB Rice Close: Futures Post Gains8-25

    Missouri: Corn, Soybeans Making Good Progress — USDA8-25

    Arkansas: Harvest Begins in Limited Areas, Rice Fields Being Drained – USDA8-25

    Texas: Crops Make Good Progress, Harvests Underway in Some Areas – USDA8-25

    Louisiana: Harvest Progresses Despite Rain Delays – USDA8-25

    Arkansas: Rice Research Verification Program Update8-25