September 26, 2013
AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Wheat, Corn Gains Continue, Soybeans Slightly Lower
Soybean prices closed lower today, despite a very good export sales report. As reports come in of an improving crop, soybeans are having a difficult time moving higher. As harvest begins to get underway in the Midwest basis levels continue to fall as supplies become available. While Monday’s quarterly stocks report is expected to tell the market soybean stocks are tight, the new crop supplies are easing tightness in the market. Soybean prices continue to hold support at $13; however barring some type hiccup in harvest, prices are likely to start their decline over the next few weeks.
Wheat prices continue to find support in the export market as they closed higher again today. Production issues in other major producing countries, combined with low quality wheat has opened the door for additional U.S. wheat exports. Wheat exports remain almost 40% ahead of their pace last year and with continued supply concerns, demand is expected to remain good throughout the year. All that said over the long term, U.S. wheat remains higher priced than many countries and this could limit price gains.
Corn prices continue to post modest gains and remain above contract lows at $4.47. While corn exports continue to add a bullish tone to the market, prices continue to feel pressure from a good harvest. If exports remain good it will improve the chances of prices maintaining their sideways trading pattern between $4.50 and $4.75. The potential remains for big declines as harvest get into full swing if exports ease and demand slows, if prices fall below the support level at $4.47, the next support is at $4.30, followed by $4.00.
|Cash Bids||Stuttgart: 1317||Pendleton: 1327|
|New Crop||Stuttgart: 1134||Pendleton: 1139|