AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Soybeans Bounce Back, Corn, Wheat Move Lower
November soybeans came even closer to closing the big gap left two weeks ago before ending the day on a positive note. A close below the bottom of that gap at $13.31 ½ would confirm that a top has been charted. The weekly crop ratings show noticeable deterioration from last week. The percentage of the crop in good to excellent condition fell 4 percentage points to 54%. 31% of the crop is now rated fair, and 15% is poor to very poor. USDA still says the national average yield will be 43 bushels per acre, but that is becoming less likely by the day. Private estimates are coming in around 40 to 41 bu/ac. Forecasts for rain have eased yield concerns for the time being, however.
Wheat prices posted new contract lows. Fundamentals for this market continue to remain weak as global supplies remain strong. Further declines are needed to help U.S. wheat be more competitive on the global marketplace. As this corn harvest gets underway wheat prices will likely soften further. July 2014 wheat continues to trade above $6.50, while acreage is expected to decline in 2014. With large stocks to use and a soft corn market this is likely a good price for wheat.
Corn prices fell again today. Declines today pushed December corn prices within 15-cents of contract lows. Expect prices to continue to decline as harvest continues to get underway easing some of the pressure the market has been feeling over the last couple of weeks. As fresh corn supplies enter the market we are seeing basis premiums evaporate. The wild card in this market remains what the USDA supply and demand forecast holds for the market next week. Expect corn prices to move lower ahead of this report as traders remain optimistic about this year’s corn crop and hopeful late rains will materialize and carry this crop across the finish line.
|Cash Bids||Stuttgart: 1376||Pendleton: 1398|
|New Crop||Stuttgart: 1150||Pendleton: 1155|
The ICE Dec and Mar contracts gave back 160 and 87 points on the week, respectively, as last week’s inversion between the two contracts gave way to partial carry. Well,