Tuesday, September 03, 2013
150px_wheat_mature_field_050601_030

Kansas Wheat: Rise in Mean Temperature Would Cut Yields, Study Finds

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


Any producer will tell you, growing a healthy, high-yielding wheat crop takes skill and hard work. Quality drought-tolerant varieties that are resistant to pests and disease are important. And cooperation from Mother Nature in terms of temperature and precipitation doesn’t hurt, either.

To quantify the impact of genetic improvement in wheat, disease and climate change over a 26-year period, a team of researchers at Kansas State University examined wheat variety yield data from Kansas performance tests, along with location-specific weather and disease data.

Their results showed that from 1985 through 2011, wheat breeding programs boosted average wheat yields by 13 bushels per acre, or 0.51 bushel each year, for a total increase of 26 percent.

Simulations also found that a 1 degree Celsius increase (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in projected mean temperature was found to decrease wheat yields by 10.64 bushels per acre or nearly 21 percent.

“Kansas wheat producers are challenged by weather, pests and disease,” said Andrew Barkley professor of agricultural economics and lead researcher of a multi-disciplinary team that included agronomists and plant pathologists. “Fortunately, the Kansas wheat breeding program produces new varieties of wheat that increase yields over time.

“Given weather trends in recent years, climate change is expected to increase temperatures, and this is likely to lower wheat yields in Kansas,” Barkley said. “Diseases such as fungi and viruses can attack wheat and lower yields. This research quantifies the impact of weather, diseases and new wheat varieties on yields. So far, genetic improvement has allowed wheat yields to increase significantly over time, but there are challenges ahead to keep up with potential increases in temperature.”

The study, funded by the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station, is the first to quantify all of these impacts (climate change, disease and genetic improvement) using a unique data set, and state-of-the-art statistical methods, Barkley said. The results update and expand previous research to identify and quantify the impact of the Kansas wheat breeding program.

From Tribune in the western part of the state to Ottawa in the east, and Parsons in the south to Belleville in the north, the data came from 11 locations across the state. All yield data are for dryland (non-irrigated) hard red winter wheat, including 245 varieties.

Daily temperature was collected at the specific location of each variety trial, resulting in a location-specific match between variety yield and weather data. That made the study’s approach unique in this branch of climate change literature, which typically relies on weather estimates over broad geographical areas.

“We don’t know what the future holds,” Barkley said. “The research does not predict climate change, or forecast future weather conditions. Instead, it shows the predicted change in Kansas wheat yields if we were to experience a 1 degree (C) increase (1.8 degrees F) in temperature. If the average temperature does increase, this research helps us to understand the potential impact on wheat production.”

Tags: , , , , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    DTN Cotton Open: Showers and Thunderstorms in the Texas Plains4-27

    DTN Livestock Open: Beef Demand Worries4-27

    DTN Grain Open: Pressure Tied to Follow-Through Selling4-27

    Flint On Crops: Soil Fertility, More than Meets the Eye4-27

    Rice: Rain Delays Continue But Some Fields Actually Going To Flood – AgFax4-25

    Rose on Cotton: We told you. Old Crop is Too Cheap.4-24

    GMOs – Why Some People Lose Reason About The Technology4-24

    Dow’s Enlist Weed Control – How the System Works4-24

    Grain TV: Brazil Trucker Strike Flares Up Slightly4-24

    Rice Progress: Wet Weather Issues, Planting Delays and Flooded Fields4-24

    DTN Livestock Close: Aggressive Short Covering4-24

    Rice Market: Overbearing Carryover Strain Continues4-24

    New Technology: Can it Help You Cut Costs? Consultants Talk About It. – AgFax Midwest Grain4-24

    Southern Corn Crop – Plenty Of Acreage Still In The Sack – AgFax4-24

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Weather Pulls the Rug Under Prices4-24

    AFB Cotton Close: Strong Exports a Boon to Prices4-24

    AFB Rice Close: Exports Unable to Spark Buying4-24

    DTN Grain Close: Favorable Weather Easing Concerns4-24

    Monsanto, Pioneer Genetically Modified Traits Approved by EU – DTN4-24

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights4-24

    China’s Ag Production: More Corn, Wheat, Rice, Cotton, Less Soybeans4-24

    John Deere: Your Tractor But Not Your Software – DTN4-24

    Dried Distillers Grain: Salt Supplements Save Pasture Grass – DTN4-24

    DTN Livestock Midday: Limited Trade Volume4-24

    Texas: Wheat Field Day, Chillicothe, May 134-24

    Weekly Cotton Market Review – USDA4-24

    DTN Grain Midday: Demand Concerns Promote Selling4-24

    FMC Corporation Completes Acquisition of Cheminova4-24

    Indiana: No-Till and Cover Crops – A Farmer’s View – Video4-24

    USDA Plan to Lower Greenhouse Gases is a ‘Very Big Deal’ – DTN4-23

    Biofuels: Senators Urge for RFS to Continue Industry Growth – DTN4-23

    U.S. Drought Monitor Quick Look Video – AgFax4-23

    ELS Cotton Competitive Payment Rate Is Zero4-23

    DTN Cotton Close: Strong Exports, Heavy Trade4-23

    Chumrau on Wheat: Competitive Factors Pressuring U.S. Export Pace4-23

    Moving Grains: Barge Rates Down on Improving River Conditions4-23

    U.S. Drought Monitor: Strong Rains in Southeast, Great Plains4-23

    Good on Grain: Spring Wheat Yield Expectations – What Does History Teach Us?4-23

    Alfalfa: From Bone Dry to Fairly Decent Moisture – DTN4-23

    Cutworm Moths on the Move, Don’t Bet on BT Hybrids or Seed Treatments – DTN4-23

    California Oat Hay: Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus Hits Hard, Some Varieties More Tolerant4-23

    Bird Flu: Poultry Produces Watch for Symptoms, CDC Says – DTN4-23

    Irrigation Systems: Are All Your Systems Go?4-23

    Grain TV: Traders Eye Cold Weather in the Midwest4-22

    Residential Propane, Heating Oil: Inventories Increase4-22

    Diesel: Prices Increase Across U.S.4-22

    Gasoline: Average Price Up from Last Week4-22

    U.S. Energy: May Tight Oil Production Expected to be Lower than April’s4-22

    Weed Management: A Regional Approach – Farmdoc4-22

    3 Things to Know About the Current Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu Outbreaks – USDA4-22

    Utah: 2 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought – USDA4-22

    Oregon: 4 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought – USDA4-22

    USDA’s Hands Tied on Cuban Trade Promotion – DTN4-22

    Soybeans: 5 Million Bushles Ending Stocks Not Helping Prices – Rabobank4-22

    Tree Nuts: U.S. Exports to China Are Down, Prices Remain High – Rabobank4-22

    Corn Market: Next Big Price Factor is Spring Planting – Rabobank4-22

    Fertilizer Market: Prices Decline; Growers Using Less to Do More – Rabobank4-22

    Rice Market: CA Growers Expect Water Cuts; Southern Acreage May Increase – Rabobank4-22

    Cotton Market: Neutral on Old Crop, Bullish New Crop – Rabobank4-22

    Pest Management: 9 Facts Concerning Black Cutworms Popping Up in the Midwest4-22

    Indiana and Nebraska: Weather Challenges are Like Water Off a Duck’s Back to Seasoned Farmers – DTN4-22

    Wheat: Efficacy of Fungicides, Timing Matters4-22

    Herbicide Resistance: Tank Mixing the Key to Control – DTN4-21

    Illinois Corn: Projected Revenues for 2015 – Farmdoc4-21

    Soil Health: Testing Ideas – Are They Worth the Money? – DTN4-21

    Sweet Potatoes Could be an Example of Natural GMOs4-21

    Drought: New Stress Detecting Sensors Help Manage Water Use4-21

    Kentucky: Cover Crop Burndown Tips; Worms and Weevils on the Rise4-21

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices4-21

    Herbicide Resistance: Slowing Weed Evolution with Management Practices4-21

    Sunbelt Ag Events

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney +