Wednesday, July 31, 2013
150px_-oil_refinery_shutterstock

Energy: Gasoline Consumption – What Direction Is It Heading?

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


As baseball nears its trading deadline on July 31, some teams need to decide if their recent upward trend is a short-term phenomenon or something that the team can build the future around. But baseball is not the only industry where midsummer trends are examined closely to determine if they are indicative of the future. The same can be said for U.S. gasoline consumption in the summer.

It is not unusual for gasoline consumption to pick up during the summer. This year, however, gasoline product supplied (EIA’s proxy for consumption) as reported in EIA weekly data has shown a more pronounced seasonal rise compared with previous years. From early May to the week ending July 5, U.S. product supplied for gasoline increased 10 percent to 9.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d).




However, this recent uptick in demand is unlikely to represent the beginning of a major boost in demand. Even with the recent rise, 2013 year-to-date gasoline consumption is almost unchanged from last year, and the estimated rise in gasoline demand is based on weekly product-supplied data that could change as more data, particularly on U.S. exports, become available.

For the weeks ending June 28 and July 5, product supplied for gasoline surpassed the 5-year average, based on data from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) through July 19, gasoline consumption in 2013 has averaged 8.6 million bbl/d, 0.4 million bbl/d below the 5-year average and marginally above 2012 average consumption.

However, at least some of the recent increase in reported gasoline consumption could be a result of the way EIA estimates weekly data, rather than an actual sharp increase in consumption. EIA uses a proxy for weekly U.S. gasoline consumption called product supplied, which measures the disappearance of a particular product from the primary supply chain. T

he WPSR uses seven surveys to collect data from respondents across the primary petroleum supply chain, made up of refineries, pipelines, bulk and blending terminals, gas processing plants and fractionators, oxygenate producers, and importers.

For a specific refined petroleum product, product supplied is equal to production plus imports minus stock change and exports.

The element subject to the most change between the WPSR product-supplied number and the monthly number published later in Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is U.S. exports. The export data used in EIA’s monthly product-supplied calculation come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which releases the data on a monthly with a two-month lag.

As a result, the weekly product-supplied data considered in this discussion are estimated initially using two-month-old export data. As a result, when the official U.S. export data is released, the weekly estimates of gasoline product supplied are updated.

Adjustments to the WPSR motor gasoline export number have ranged between +300,000 to -280,000 bbl/d, meaning the recent perceived jump in gasoline demand is within the range of historical adjustments. This suggests that while the seasonal upward trend in gasoline demand is likely to remain, the recent surge in demand over the previous year and the 5-year average may become less pronounced once Census releases export data for June and July are released (May data are currently the latest available).

According to trade press, U.S. gasoline exports in June and July are likely to have increased as a result of demand from West Africa, which typically receives gasoline from European refineries. However, price-advantaged domestic crudes allow U.S. refiners to economically produce and ship gasoline to West Africa in greater quantities. If this is actually the case, apparent surge in demand witnessed since May, may prove to have been illusionary like the pennant hopes of many baseball teams.

Full report.


Tags: , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    Rice Market: Technical Indicators Remain in “Sell” Mode10-24

    Rice Crop: Harvest Nearly Complete, Ratoon Harvest to Start Soon10-24

    Rose on Cotton: Increased Export Competition with India10-24

    Grain TV: Unable to Sustain Yesterday’s Gains10-24

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Futures Move Lower10-24

    Doane Cotton Close: Strong Stock Market Keeps Prices Up10-24

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Markets Decline Across the Board10-24

    AFB Cotton Close: Higher in Middle of Day’s Range10-24

    AFB Rice Close: Nearby Contracts Slightly Higher10-24

    DTN Cotton Close: Jumps Ahead as Volume Improves10-24

    DTN Grain Close: Markets Pull Back, End Week Higher10-24

    Cleveland on Cotton: Market Keeps Spinning the Same Record10-24

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights10-24

    Georgia Pecans: Very Light Deliveries, Season Still Running Late10-24

    Soybean Cyst Nematodes: Soil Sampling, Resistant Varieties Are the Best Defense – DTN10-24

    Farm Finances: Prepare Now for Rising Interest Rates – DTN10-24

    Mississippi Pumpkins: Heavy Rains Damaged Crop, Delayed Harvest10-24

    DTN Livestock Midday: Live Cattle Futures Turn Lower10-24

    Louisiana Soybeans: Headed for Another Record Year10-24

    DTN Grain Midday: Corn, Soybeans Move Lower10-24

    Dried Distillers Grains Eyed as Fish Food — DTN10-24

    DTN Cotton Open: Slightly Higher on Light Volume10-24

    DTN Livestock Open: Cash Cattle Values Surge10-24

    DTN Grain Open: Futures Extend Gains10-24

    Keith Good: EPA’s Water Rule Approved by Internal Review Board10-24

    Grain TV: Soybean Exports Double Expectations10-23

    Livestock: Country Of Origin Labeling Debate Marches On – DTN10-23

    Small Scale Organic Farming a Good Way to Branch into Ag – DTN10-23

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Higher Soybean Shipment Boosts Inspections10-23

    Advances in Farming Technology Continue to Aid Mother Nature — DTN10-23

    Ethanol Production Profits Hit the Wall — Why Did it Happen?10-23

    U.S. Energy: Crude Exports, Re-Exports Continue to Rise10-23

    Gasoline Prices: Show 9-Cent Decrease10-23

    Propane Stocks: Increase by 0.2M Barrels10-23

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops 4 Cents10-23

    Alabama: Recent Weather Radar Oddity Was Mayfly Swarm10-22

    Soybean Harvest: Prioritize Shatter-Prone Fields – DTN10-22

    Ethanol: Court Tosses E15 Labeling Lawsuit – DTN10-22

    Georgia: 2 Counties Declared Natural Disaster Areas10-22

    Arkansas: 2 Counties Designated Natural Disaster Areas10-22

    AgFax Grain Review: More Lawsuits Against Syngenta; Harvest Well Behind Pace10-22

    2 Families, 2 Approaches to Building Ranch Tourism — DTN10-22

    Don’t Just Piggy-Back on Others’ Prices in Ag Commodity Markets10-22

    National Cotton Council Commends Timely APH Announcement10-22

    Wheat Growers to Seek Inclusion in APH Yield Exclusion for 2015 – DTN10-21

    Farm Shop Dream Requires Thoughtful Planning – DTN10-21

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices10-21

    USDA to Implement APH Yield Exclusion for 2015 Spring Crops10-21

    Arkansas: USA Rice Outlook Conference Set Dec. 7-9 in Little Rock10-21

    AgFax Cotton Review: Lower Acres May Close Mill; Australia Acres Up10-21

    DTN Fertilizer Trends: High Costs May Alter Growers’ Tactics for 201510-21

    Herbicide Resistant Weed Summit’s Slides, Webcast Available Online10-20

    Rice and Sugar: Thailand’s Quest for World Domination10-20

    AgFax Peanut Review: NM Down 6M Pounds as State Celebrates 100 Year Crop10-20

    Sunbelt Ag Events

    Rice News

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney