Wednesday, July 31, 2013
150px_-oil_refinery_shutterstock

Energy: Gasoline Consumption – What Direction Is It Heading?

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


As baseball nears its trading deadline on July 31, some teams need to decide if their recent upward trend is a short-term phenomenon or something that the team can build the future around. But baseball is not the only industry where midsummer trends are examined closely to determine if they are indicative of the future. The same can be said for U.S. gasoline consumption in the summer.

It is not unusual for gasoline consumption to pick up during the summer. This year, however, gasoline product supplied (EIA’s proxy for consumption) as reported in EIA weekly data has shown a more pronounced seasonal rise compared with previous years. From early May to the week ending July 5, U.S. product supplied for gasoline increased 10 percent to 9.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d).

 

However, this recent uptick in demand is unlikely to represent the beginning of a major boost in demand. Even with the recent rise, 2013 year-to-date gasoline consumption is almost unchanged from last year, and the estimated rise in gasoline demand is based on weekly product-supplied data that could change as more data, particularly on U.S. exports, become available.

For the weeks ending June 28 and July 5, product supplied for gasoline surpassed the 5-year average, based on data from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) through July 19, gasoline consumption in 2013 has averaged 8.6 million bbl/d, 0.4 million bbl/d below the 5-year average and marginally above 2012 average consumption.

However, at least some of the recent increase in reported gasoline consumption could be a result of the way EIA estimates weekly data, rather than an actual sharp increase in consumption. EIA uses a proxy for weekly U.S. gasoline consumption called product supplied, which measures the disappearance of a particular product from the primary supply chain. T

he WPSR uses seven surveys to collect data from respondents across the primary petroleum supply chain, made up of refineries, pipelines, bulk and blending terminals, gas processing plants and fractionators, oxygenate producers, and importers.

For a specific refined petroleum product, product supplied is equal to production plus imports minus stock change and exports.

The element subject to the most change between the WPSR product-supplied number and the monthly number published later in Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is U.S. exports. The export data used in EIA’s monthly product-supplied calculation come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which releases the data on a monthly with a two-month lag.

As a result, the weekly product-supplied data considered in this discussion are estimated initially using two-month-old export data. As a result, when the official U.S. export data is released, the weekly estimates of gasoline product supplied are updated.

Adjustments to the WPSR motor gasoline export number have ranged between +300,000 to -280,000 bbl/d, meaning the recent perceived jump in gasoline demand is within the range of historical adjustments. This suggests that while the seasonal upward trend in gasoline demand is likely to remain, the recent surge in demand over the previous year and the 5-year average may become less pronounced once Census releases export data for June and July are released (May data are currently the latest available).

According to trade press, U.S. gasoline exports in June and July are likely to have increased as a result of demand from West Africa, which typically receives gasoline from European refineries. However, price-advantaged domestic crudes allow U.S. refiners to economically produce and ship gasoline to West Africa in greater quantities. If this is actually the case, apparent surge in demand witnessed since May, may prove to have been illusionary like the pennant hopes of many baseball teams.

Full report.

Tags: , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    Farmland Partners Buys 7 South Carolina Farms for $28M11-24

    Livestock: Hog and Pork Prices Return to Reality11-24

    DTN Livestock Midday: Cattle Futures Take Sharp Slide11-24

    DTN Grain Midday: Corn, Soybeans Move Lower11-24

    Corn: Breaking Down Stalks Takes Thought, Planning — DTN11-24

    DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Winter’s Arrival May Delay Some Buying11-24

    DTN Cotton Open: Trades Down Slightly within Tiny Spans11-24

    Brazil Soybeans: Dry Conditions Still Cause for Concern11-24

    DTN Livestock Open: Cattle Futures Geared for Higher Start11-24

    Flint on Crops: Low Input Farming May be Necessary in 201511-24

    DTN Grain Open: Markets Begin Week Lower11-24

    Keith Good: EPA Decision on Renewable Fuels Mandate Delayed to 201511-24

    Midwest Corn And Soybean Yields – Our Readers’ Reports – AgFax11-22

    Rice Comment: The Case for Neonicotinoid Seed Treatment11-22

    U.S. Rice: Rain Stalls Texas 2nd Crop Harvest; Crop Sales Continue11-22

    Rice Market: Sale to Iraq Moves the Market11-22

    Rose on Cotton: Looking for the Positives This Week11-21

    Grain Drying: 6 Questions About Effects Of Sudden Drop In Temps11-21

    Is Your Lifestyle Costing You the Farm?11-21

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Futures Solidly Higher11-21

    Farmers Storing Grain Need to Weigh Risk Management Factors – DTN11-21

    Peanut Harvest Updates From Southeast, Delta And Southwest – AgFax11-21

    Cleveland on Cotton: 57 Cents – ‘The Bottom is In’11-21

    Ag Labor: Immigration Order Provides Little Long-Term Benefit – DTN11-21

    Doane Cotton Close: Decline in Chinese Production Offers Support11-21

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Strong Soybean Gains, Little Movement in Corn, Wheat11-21

    Southern Soybean, Corn Harvest Reports, Round One – AgFax11-21

    AFB Cotton Close: Futures Rebound11-21

    AFB Rice Close: Prices See More Slight Gains11-21

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles Higher on Light Volume11-21

    DTN Grain Close: Soybeans Boosted by Demand11-21

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights11-21

    Oklahoma Pecans: Deliveries Remain Light11-21

    Georgia Pecans: Buying Interest Very Active11-21

    Ag Policy: Farm Bills Need Long-Term View11-21

    Cotton Market Weekly Review by Region11-21

    Arkansas Cattle: Ranchers Should be Alert to Acorn Poisoning11-21

    Economist: Livestock Industry Will Have Strong Rebound11-21

    DTN Dried Distillers Grain: Cheaper Feed Source for Beef Producers?11-21

    Mississippi Outdoors: Common Deer Parasites Do Not Affect Venison11-21

    AgFax Wildlife Review: New E-Book Offers Tips for Gardening in South11-21

    Weather Challenges Florida and Iowa Farms — DTN11-21

    Vilsack: Immigration Order Creates ‘Stability’ in Ag Work Force — DTN11-21

    Texas Cotton Harvest – Still Some To Go – AgFax11-20

    Mississippi: Water Conservation Summit, Stoneville, Dec. 1011-20

    Farm Internet Service Still Slow or Non-Existent, But Improving – DTN11-20

    Yield: Important Factor in Your Irrevocable Farm Program Choice11-20

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Weekly Inspections Reach Record11-20

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvements Expected for California, Southwest11-20

    U.S. Energy: Planned Refinery Maintenance Light in 201411-20

    Propane Stocks: Post Slight Increase11-20

    Gasoline Prices: Decrease by 5 Cents11-20

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops 2 Cents11-20

    Livestock: Arctic Chill Catches Markets Flatfooted – DTN11-19

    Farm Runoff Targeted for Regulation Following Algal Bloom Shutdown – DTN11-19

    Soybeans: China May Import More Non-GMO Beans – DTN11-19

    Mississippi Outdoors: Free Apps Can Aid Deer Hunters11-19

    Big River Rice And Grain Enhances, Expands Facilities In Arkansas, Louisiana11-19

    Farm Bill Commodity Program: Decisions and More Decisions11-18

    Sunbelt Ag Events

    Rice News

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney