Wednesday, July 31, 2013
150px_-oil_refinery_shutterstock

Energy: Gasoline Consumption – What Direction Is It Heading?

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


As baseball nears its trading deadline on July 31, some teams need to decide if their recent upward trend is a short-term phenomenon or something that the team can build the future around. But baseball is not the only industry where midsummer trends are examined closely to determine if they are indicative of the future. The same can be said for U.S. gasoline consumption in the summer.

It is not unusual for gasoline consumption to pick up during the summer. This year, however, gasoline product supplied (EIA’s proxy for consumption) as reported in EIA weekly data has shown a more pronounced seasonal rise compared with previous years. From early May to the week ending July 5, U.S. product supplied for gasoline increased 10 percent to 9.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d).

 

However, this recent uptick in demand is unlikely to represent the beginning of a major boost in demand. Even with the recent rise, 2013 year-to-date gasoline consumption is almost unchanged from last year, and the estimated rise in gasoline demand is based on weekly product-supplied data that could change as more data, particularly on U.S. exports, become available.

For the weeks ending June 28 and July 5, product supplied for gasoline surpassed the 5-year average, based on data from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) through July 19, gasoline consumption in 2013 has averaged 8.6 million bbl/d, 0.4 million bbl/d below the 5-year average and marginally above 2012 average consumption.

However, at least some of the recent increase in reported gasoline consumption could be a result of the way EIA estimates weekly data, rather than an actual sharp increase in consumption. EIA uses a proxy for weekly U.S. gasoline consumption called product supplied, which measures the disappearance of a particular product from the primary supply chain. T

he WPSR uses seven surveys to collect data from respondents across the primary petroleum supply chain, made up of refineries, pipelines, bulk and blending terminals, gas processing plants and fractionators, oxygenate producers, and importers.

For a specific refined petroleum product, product supplied is equal to production plus imports minus stock change and exports.

The element subject to the most change between the WPSR product-supplied number and the monthly number published later in Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is U.S. exports. The export data used in EIA’s monthly product-supplied calculation come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which releases the data on a monthly with a two-month lag.

As a result, the weekly product-supplied data considered in this discussion are estimated initially using two-month-old export data. As a result, when the official U.S. export data is released, the weekly estimates of gasoline product supplied are updated.

Adjustments to the WPSR motor gasoline export number have ranged between +300,000 to -280,000 bbl/d, meaning the recent perceived jump in gasoline demand is within the range of historical adjustments. This suggests that while the seasonal upward trend in gasoline demand is likely to remain, the recent surge in demand over the previous year and the 5-year average may become less pronounced once Census releases export data for June and July are released (May data are currently the latest available).

According to trade press, U.S. gasoline exports in June and July are likely to have increased as a result of demand from West Africa, which typically receives gasoline from European refineries. However, price-advantaged domestic crudes allow U.S. refiners to economically produce and ship gasoline to West Africa in greater quantities. If this is actually the case, apparent surge in demand witnessed since May, may prove to have been illusionary like the pennant hopes of many baseball teams.

Full report.

Tags: , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    Grain TV: Brazil Strike Support Eases Off Soybeans3-2

    Fertilizer Management: Watch Out for Burns from In-Furrow Starters – DTN3-2

    DTN Livestock Close: More Constructive Fundamentals3-2

    Keith Good: Ethanol Profits; California Rains – Just Drop in the Drought Bucket3-2

    Herbicide-Resistance: 12 Steps to Keep Weeds Away3-2

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Negative News Day3-2

    AFB Cotton Close: Slightly Mixed3-2

    AFB Rice Close: Market Mostly Higher3-2

    Livestock: Pork’s Boom and Bust Price Pattern3-2

    Doane Cotton Close: Market Follows Stock Exchange3-2

    DTN Cotton Close: Winter Weather Impedes Field Work3-2

    DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Harsh Winter to Keep Prices Flat3-2

    Corn Planting: New Technology Allows More Even Stands, Improved Yields – DTN3-2

    DTN Grain Close: Brazil Strike Wears Down3-2

    Grain Sorghum: Great Rotation Crop – Acres Growing in Mid-Atlantic Region3-2

    Arkansas: Tyson Gives $5M to Help Fund Center for Ag Sciences3-2

    DTN Grain Midday: Ethanol Margins Remain Strong3-2

    DTN Cotton Open: Cash Grower Sales Slump3-2

    Keith Good: Crop Insurance Guarantees to Fall; California Drought “Catastrophic”;3-2

    DTN Livestock Open: Cattle Contracts Show Moderate Strength3-2

    Rose on Cotton: Gin Show Visit – High Quality Cotton Still in Demand2-28

    Trade Promotion Authority: Vilsack Whips Up Support2-27

    Ethanol: Corn Growers Defend RFS – DTN2-27

    Planting: New Rigs at the Top of Their Game – DTN2-27

    Rice Market: Only Feeble Signs of Price Improvement2-27

    Wheat: Study Sheds Light on Stem Rust Disease in Africa and Asia2-27

    Nebraska: Can You Shoot an Uninvited Drone?2-27

    Turkey Hunting: Tips for the Spring Gobbler Season2-27

    Cotton Base Acres Count as Generic Base Under Farm Bill2-27

    Soybeans: Monsanto Plans In-Field Training for Roundup Ready2 Xtend2-27

    DTN Cotton Close: Texas Could See More Freezing Rain, Snow2-27

    Shurley on Cotton: Improvement Slows Down, but What Else Did We Expect?2-27

    Peanut Stocks and Processing: Utilization Up 7%2-27

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights2-27

    Weekly Cotton Market Review – USDA2-27

    Keith Good: Chinese Corn Imports Not Likely to Recover; Food Stamp Debate Rages On2-27

    Georgia Celebrates National Peanut Month with PB&J Day, Donations2-27

    USDA Changes Deadline: Yield History Update, Reallocation Base Now Due March 312-27

    DTN Livestock Midday: Markets Hit by Selling Pressure2-27

    U.S. Grain Transportation: West Coast Ports Return to Normal2-27

    Pinnacle’s Sanders in 9 Southern States with Newest Acquisition2-27

    DTN Grain Open: Brazil Trucker Strike Fueling Soybean Market2-27

    South Carolina: Got Wild Hogs? Time To Speak Up.2-27

    Texas: Master Marketer Program Hits 25th Year, Going Strong2-27

    Louisiana Rice: Losing Methyl Bromide Creates Challenge For Bin Insect Control2-27

    Iowa Senate Approved Tougher Restrictions on Manure Applications – DTN2-26

    NFL Star Turned Farmer Engages Youth, Community Through Ag – DTN2-26

    Chumrau on Wheat: USDA Forecasts Higher Production in 2015-162-26

    Corn Yields: Expectations for the 2015 Average – What Does History Teach Us?2-26

    ELS Cotton Competitive Payment Rate Is Zero2-26

    NRCS Invests $84M Natural Disaster Funds in 13 States2-26

    Georgia: Crabgrass Control Depends on Soil Temperatures2-26

    DTN Cotton Close: Bounces Off New High2-26

    Early Spring Best Time to Test and Tune Farm Machinery2-26

    Ag Conservation Easement Program Accepting Comments on Final Rule2-26

    Pesticide Drift: Calm, Still Days Are Most Dangerous – DTN2-26

    Livestock: Port Resumptions Bring Meat Industry a Sigh of Relief – DTN2-26

    Keith Good: Global Soybean Issues; Vilsack on Crop Insurance; Food Stamps Re-Revisited2-26

    Farm Bill Deadlines Approach: 17 Questions – Answers for Landlords2-25

    U.S. Energy: ExxonMobil California Refinery Outage – Implications for Oil Markets2-25

    Propane Inventories, Prices Dip2-25

    Gas Prices Continue to Climb2-25

    Diesel Prices on the Rise2-25

    DTN Grain Close: Soybean Prices See-Saw Lower2-25

    California: 9 Counties Designated Natural Disaster Areas2-25

    Arizona: 2 Counties Designated Natural Disaster Areas2-25

    Farm Management: 4 Cost Control Plans to Make Ends Meet – DTN2-25

    Texas: Sutton County Designated Natural Disaster Area2-25

    Brazil Soybean Harvest: Truck Driver Blockades Hit Farmers Hard – DTN2-25

    Texas: Planter Clinic, Dimmit, March 112-25

    South Carolina Peach Farmer Honored for Achievement in Produce Innovation2-25

    Keith Good: Exports Damaged by Port Delays; Ethanol Production Cutting Back2-25

    Sunbelt Ag Events

    Rice News

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney