Friday, June 28, 2013
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Wheat Price Highlights: Futures Drop Sharply on Advancing Harvest Pressure

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Highlights:

  • All three wheat futures contracts dropped sharply this week due to advancing harvest pressure and a bearish USDA acreage report. Early winter wheat harvest reports indicate better than expected yields, including in Kansas, the top HRW producing state. Losses to the MGEX nearby contract were limited by tight supplies of high protein wheat. All three contracts fell to their lowest point in more than 14 months. KCBT July wheat saw the largest drop, down 40 cents to 6.72/bu. CBOT July wheat dropped 34 cents to $6.47/bu and MGEX July closed at $7.85/bu, a 27 cent loss. CBOT July corn added 27 cents to close at $6.82/bu and CBOT soybeans added 48 cents to $15.64/bu.
  • Both CBOT and KCBT nearby futures contracts fell below the nearby CBOT corn for the first time this marketing year. However, September wheat futures have more than a $1.10/bu premium over September corn.
  • USDA on Monday said 20 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been harvested, up from 11 percent a week ago and below the five-year average of 37 percent. USDA reported 96 percent of spring wheat as planted, compared to the five-year average of 99 percent. Last year, 100 percent of spring wheat was planted by May 29.
  • In its acreage update on Friday, USDA estimated all wheat planted area for 2013 at 56.5 million acres, up 1 percent from 2012. The 2013 winter wheat planted area, at 42.7 million acres, is 3 percent above last year and up 2 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 29.4 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 9.96 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.38 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2013 is estimated at 12.3 million acres, up slightly from 2012. Of this total, about 11.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. The estimated Durum wheat planted area for 2013 is estimated at 1.54 million acres, down 28 percent from the previous year.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index increased for the third consecutive week, up 80 points to 1007. Steady demand from Brazil and China is mostly responsible for the increase. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index increased from 484.0 to 488.2.
  • The US Dollar Index rose this week to 83.43 from 82.52 last Friday.

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