WASDE Wheat: U.S. Supplies Down 7%; Production Projected Down 9%

Debra Ferguson
From USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates May 10, 2013 22:00

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WASDE Wheat: U.S. Supplies Down 7%; Production Projected Down 9%

U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13. Wheat production is projected at 2,057 million bushels, down 9 percent from last year with reduced prospects for Hard Red Winter wheat.  The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains. Partly offsetting is higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production with higher area. Spring wheat production for 2013/14 is projected to decline 8 percent as reduced durum area and a return to trend yields reduce prospects for durum and other spring wheat.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2013/14 is projected down 7 percent year-to- year with lower domestic use and exports. Feed and residual disappearance is projected 70 million bushels lower as larger supplies and lower prices for feed grains in 2013/14 limit wheat feeding by late summer. Partly offsetting is a 13-million-bushel increase in domestic food use as flour extraction rates fall from a very high level in 2012/13 and consumption grows with population. Exports for 2013/14 are projected at 925 million bushels, down 100 million from the 2012/13 projection. Large crops for major export competitors limit opportunities for U.S. wheat. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fourth consecutive year. At 670 million bushels, ending stocks would be down 61 million bushels from the 2012/13 projection. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.15 to $7.45 per bushel, down from the re cord $7.80 projected for 2012/13 as world prices for wheat and coarse grains are expected to decline sharply by fall.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are projected 3 percent higher than in 2012/13 with a 51.2-million-ton increase in foreign production more than offsetting a 19.3-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks and lower forecast production in the United States. At the projected 701.1 million tons, global production would be a record and up 45.5 million from 2012/13. Production for 2013/14 is projected higher in all of the world’s major exporting countries wi th the largest increases expected in the FSU-12 and EU-27, up 29.9 million tons and 6.7 million tons, respectively. Production is projected higher for Australia, Argentina, and Canada, up a collective 6.2 million tons from the current year. Also affecting global trade prospects in 2013/14 are year-to-year production increases for major importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favorable for winter crops since seeding last fall.

Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are projected higher than in 2012/13 with increases expected for FSU-12, Argentina, and India more than offse tting reductions for EU-27 and Australia . Global wheat consumption is projected 20.0 million tons higher with increases in both feeding and food use. Wheat feed and residual use is raised for FSU-12 and EU-27 with larger production. The largest increase in food use is for India, but lower prices support small increases for many countries. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 186.4 million tons, up 6. 2 million on the year.

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Debra Ferguson
From USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates May 10, 2013 22:00

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