Agfax Buzz:
    May 10, 2013
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    WASDE Rice: Ending U.S. Stocks Down 3%; Global Up 9M Tons

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    From USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

    Tighter U.S. 2013/14 all rice supplies, forecast down 6 percent from 2012/13 and lower projected use, down 7 percent from 2012/13 result in ending stocks that are down 3 percent from the previous year. Beginning stocks and production for 2013/14 are both forecast lower from a year ago, while imports are forecast 5 percent larger. U.S. rice production for 2013/14 is projected at 189. 5 million cwt, down 5 percent from 2012/13. Harvested area is estimated at 2.59 million acres based on average harvested-to-planted ratios for the previous 5 years, the lowest area since 1987/88. Average a ll rice yield is projected at 7,317 pounds per acre, down 2 percent from the previous year’s record.

    U.S. 2013/14 all rice total use is projected at a 213.0 million cwt, 7 per cent below the previous year. Domestic and residual use is projected at 115.0 million cwt, 4 percent below 2012/13. All rice exports are projected at 98.0 million cwt, 9 per cent below 2012/13, and the lowest since 2008/09. Long-grain rice exports are projected at 69.0 million, 10 percent below the previous year, and combined medium- and short- grain rice exports at 29.0 million, 7 percent below 2012/13. U.S. long-grain exports will be limited by a tighter U.S. supply situation, and increased competition among t he major South American and Asian exporters. Exports of medium-grain rice will be constrained by tighter U.S. supplies and greater competition from Egypt and Australia. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 33.1 million cwt, 3 percent below the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 21.9 million cwt, 7 percent above 2012/13, and combined medium- and short- grain rice stocks at 9.0 million, 22 percent below the previous year.

    The U.S. 2013/14 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, compared to a revised $14.20 to $14.60 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $15.80 to $16.20 for the year earlier. The 2013/14 all rice price is project ed at $14.30 to $15.30 per cwt, compared to a revised $14.70 to $15.10 per cwt for 2012/13. Global 2013/14 total supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 584.7 and 476.8 million tons, respectively, resulting in a 2.4-million increase in world ending stocks.

    Global 2013/14 rice production is projected at a record 479.3 million tons, up 9.0 million from 2012/13. Record to near-record rice crops are projected in Asia. Record crops are projected for the major exporters including India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, large crops are forecast for other exporters including Burma, Cambodia, and Egypt. On the importer side, record or near-record crops are forecast for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sub- Saharan Africa. Global 2013/14 consumption is projected at a record 476.8 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous year.

    Global exports in 2013/14 are projected at 38.9 million tons, up marginally from 2012/13. India and Thailand are forecast to be the largest global rice ex porters in 2013/14 with exports of 8.5 million tons each followed by Vietnam at 7.7 million tons. Large 2013/14 imports are projected for China, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa with Nigeria the largest in t hat region. China’s imports have surged since 2011/12— forecast to be 2.9 million tons in 2012/13 and 3.0 million in 2013/14—making China the largest global rice importer in 2013/14. China’s annual consumption needs have overtaken production since 2012/13. Strong domestic prices in China have encouraged imports of lower-priced rice fr om Burma, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Global 2013/14 ending stocks are expected to increase 2. 4 million tons to 107.8 million, the largest since 2001/02.

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