Friday, May 10, 2013

WASDE Oilseed: U.S. Soybean Production Projected Up 375M Tons From 2012 Drought

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U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 100.9 million tons, up 9 percent from 2012/13.

Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Sunflower seed, peanut, and cottonseed production are each projected below last year’s crops. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels, up 375 million from the drought-reduced 2012 crop on s lightly higher harvested area and higher yields. Soybean yields are projected at a weather-adjusted trend level of 44.5 bushels per acre, up 4.9 bushels from 2012. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.530 billion bushels, up 10 percent from 2012/13. Additional soybean meal exports for 2012/13 are offset by reduced domestic consumption, leaving crush unchanged. Soybean exports and ending stocks for 2012/13 are also unchanged from last month.

The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 60 million from 2012/13 reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption and exports. Despite in creased competition from South America, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast higher on sharply lower prices. Soybean exports are projected at 1.450 billion bushels, up 100 million from 2012/13 on increased supplies and competitive prices. Ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million from 2012/13. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel compared with $14.30 per bushel in 2012/13. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $280-$320 per short ton and 47-51 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 491.3 million tons, up 4.7 percent from 2012/13 mainly due to increased soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 285.5 million tons, up 6 percent. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2012/13 on record planted area and higher yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 85 million tons as higher harvested area more than offsets lower yields. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2012/13 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops.

If realized, harvested area at 6.6 million hectares would be down 28 percent in the past 4 years. Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed) is projected up 6.1 percent from 2012/13 on increased rapeseed production in Canada, India, EU-27, and Ukraine, and increased sunflower seed production in Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Oilseed supplies are up 5.1 percent from 2012/13. With crush projected to increase 3.4 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, up 12.3 million.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.7 percent in 2013/14. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3. 3 percent in China, accounting for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 107.1 million tons , up 11.3 percent from 2012/13. China soybean WASDE-518-4 imports are projected at 69 million tons, up 10 million from the revised 2012/13 projection, leaving soybean supplies up 5 million tons from the previous year. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to rise 3 percent in 2013/14, led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.

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