Saturday, November 17, 2012
drought_outlook_1115

U.S. Drought Outlook: Some Improvement Expected in Southeast

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


Forecast confidence for the Southeast is moderate.

  • Most of the Southeast received little to no precipitation during the past 2 weeks, with the exception of northwestern and central Georgia which received moderate rainfall (0.5 – 2.0 inches).
  • In the short term (next 5 days), an upper-air disturbance is likely to bring up to an inch of rain to the southern Atlantic Coast states, helping to ease some of the drought in this area.
  • CPC’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows enhanced odds of above-median precipitation for the Carolinas.
  • At monthly and seasonal time-scales, the best chances (though still modest) for above-median precipitation are centered over the southern Appalachians/eastern Tennessee region.
  • Negative PDO composites favor drier conditions closer to the Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, EC is predicted.

Forecast confidence for the Mississippi-, Tennessee-, and Ohio Valleys is moderate to high.

  • Much of the Mississippi River Valley received moderate precipitation (0.5 – 2.0 inches) during the past two weeks, with 2.0 – 3.0 inch amounts observed over central portions of both Arkansas and Mississippi, southeastern and north-central Missouri, and eastern Iowa.
  • Though little precipitation is predicted for the ensuing week, there is a tilt in the odds for above-median precipitation across the upper Mississippi Valley during the Week 2 period.
  • For the December and DJF outlooks, the area favored for above-median precipitation shifts southward to the south-central Mississippi Valley, and extending eastward from there across the Tennessee and portions of the Ohio Valleys.
  • As a result, improvement is anticipated across the D0 and D1 areas encompassing western Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, and small portions of adjacent states.

Forecast confidence for the Plains is moderate.

  • Moderate precipitation (0.5 – 2.0 inches) fell over Montana, North Dakota, and eastern sections of the central and southern Great Plains during the past two weeks, helping to ease regional drought conditions.
  • Less than 0.5-inch of precipitation was reported elsewhere. Recent precipitation should help to recharge soils before the ground freezes.
  • For the upcoming two weeks, model guidance is generally trending drier across the Great Plains. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks are indeterminate regarding the precipitation anomaly sign.
  • In Texas, drier conditions are favored in association with a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Therefore, odds favor persistence for the areas of drought in eastern and southern Texas, and two areas of developing drought were introduced in central and south-central Texas.

Forecast confidence for the Southwest is moderate.

  • Since the start of November, up to 2 inches of precipitation has fallen over much of the Four Corners region, with locally heavier amounts reported over higher elevation areas.
  • For the next two weeks, a drier pattern is expected. CPC’s monthly and seasonal forecasts call for EC across this region, due to weak and conflicting climate signals.
  • Based on the dry trending guidance in the shorter-term and uncertainty in the 30-day and 90-day periods, coupled with diminishing chances of a substantive El Nino event, drought reduction during the rainy season becomes less likely.

Forecast confidence for the Northwest is moderate.

  • Heavy rainfall and high elevation snowfall persisted across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies during the first ten days of November.
  • During this same period, temperatures started off above-normal but ended up below-normal. On November 10th, Great Falls, Montana reported a maximum temperature of 10 degrees F, which is 36 degrees below normal for the date, as unusually cold air for this early in the season pushed southward and eastward across the northern Plains.
  • A wet pattern is predicted through the ensuing two-week period across the Northwest, including northern and central California.
  • Recent CFSv2 forecasts for December 2012 precipitation and December-February 2012/13 precipitation generally favor a somewhat wetter pattern than what they were predicting several weeks ago.
  • The CPC monthly outlook for December 2012 and the winter seasonal outlook for December-February 2012/13 anticipate equal chances (EC) over the Pacific Northwest, though the seasonal outlook favors below-median precipitation across northern and central California.

Forecast confidence for the mid-Atlantic region is moderate.

  • During the past 14-days, heavy precipitation (2.0 inches or greater) fell over a significant portion of the mid-Atlantic and upper Ohio Valley region, with moderate amounts (0.5 – 2.0 inches) over the lower Ohio Valley and southwestern Virginia.
  • After a relatively wet start to the period, climate signals become weak and conflicting. Therefore, EC is deemed the best bet for the 30-day and 90-day precipitation outlooks.

Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate.

  • In Hawaii, mostly dry weather prevailed earlier this past week, but trade wind showers and a nearby upper-air trough brought precipitation to windward locations late in the week.
  • As we progress into the rainy season, it is thought that some improvement is most likely for most of the Islands, with the exception of the Big Island, where persistence of drought is favored.


Tags: , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    AgFax Grain Review: China Approves Syngenta Corn; Turkey Bans U.S. DDG Imports12-19

    Rose on Cotton: Consider Selling Remaining Spot Cotton12-19

    Livestock: USDA Drops Checkoff Plan Following Appropriations Bill12-19

    Georgia Farmer Sets New World-Record Corn Yield – DTN12-19

    Grain TV: Basis Levels Lower at Many Crushing Plants12-19

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Futures Rebound With Triple-Digit Gains12-19

    Doane Cotton Close: Another Choppy Week Ends Slightly Ahead12-19

    Arkansas: State Plant Board Approves Enlist Duo, Dicamba Weed Control Systems12-19

    Mississippi Crop Values to Top $7B for 3rd Straight Year12-19

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Wheat, Soybeans Drop, Corn Mixed12-19

    AFB Cotton Close: Mixed as Futures Continue to Consolidate12-19

    AFB Rice Close: Strong Gains to End the Week12-19

    Texas Pecans: Moderate Deliveries, Good Demand12-19

    Oklahoma Pecans: Moderate Early Deliveries Taper Off12-19

    Cleveland on Cotton: India Stirs the Bears; China Releases Reliable Stock Estimates12-19

    Western Region Pecans: Buying Interest Good, Moderate Deliveries12-19

    Georgia Pecans: Increased Deliveries, Smaller Lots12-19

    Alfalfa: Dupont Pioneer Sells Alfalfa Seed Biz To S&W12-19

    Texas Ag Benefits from Normalized U.S.-Cuba Relations, Says Expert12-19

    Brazil Livestock: Small Scale Ranchers Account for Most Deforestation – DTN12-19

    DTN Cotton Close: Narrowly Mixed on Light Volume12-19

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights12-19

    AgFax Peanut Review: Spray Fungicides at Night; New Peanut Butter and Chocolate Ice Cream12-19

    DTN Grain Close: Wheat Pulls Back As Ruble, Oil Rally12-19

    Mississippi Soybeans: Record Yield Valued at $1.17B12-19

    DTN Livestock Midday: Feeder Cattle Post Strong Gains12-19

    DTN Grain Midday: All 3 Markets Trading Lower12-19

    Weekly Cotton Market Review12-19

    Mississippi Outdoors: Feeding Wildlife in Winter Can Cause Problems12-19

    DTN Cotton Open: Ticks Quietly Just Below Unchanged12-19

    AgFax Wildlife Review: Oklahoma Man Faces Felonies Over Wild Hogs12-19

    DTN Livestock Open: Futures to Begin Solidly Higher12-19

    DTN Grain Open: Wheat Futures Plummet12-19

    Keith Good: New Cuba Policy Could Open Huge Market for U.S. Wheat12-19

    DTN Livestock Close: Cattle Futures Pull Out of Price Collapse12-18

    Nitrogen Fertilizer: Oversupply, Geopolitical Risk Overshadow Strong Global Demand – DTN12-18

    China Holds Grain Import Quotas Steady, Revises Application Process – DTN12-18

    Doane Cotton Close: Choppy Sideways Action Continues12-18

    Chumrau on Wheat: USDA Raises World Estimates, No Comment on Russian Rumors12-18

    Georgia: 2015 Ag Forecast Meetings in Mid-January12-18

    John Deere Sells Crop Insurance Arm To Farmers Mutual Hail12-18

    Japan Elections Won’t Soften Trade Issues — DTN12-18

    U.S. Grain Transportation: Rail Shipments Make Big Jump12-18

    DuPont Pioneer Rolls Out New Soybean And Corn Selections For 201512-18

    Updated ARC-CO and PLC Payment Indicator for 2014 Crop Year12-18

    Livestock: Sharp Cattle Declines as Inscrutable as the Grinch – DTN12-18

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvement Expected Across California12-18

    Ag Trade Should Benefit from Thaw in U.S.-Cuba Relations12-18

    U.S. Energy: Heating Oil Expenditures Expected to Drop This Winter12-18

    Gasoline Prices: Decline in All Regions12-18

    Propane Stocks: Decrease by 0.8M Barrels12-18

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops 12 Cents12-18

    Virginia Govt. Joins USDA, EPA in Fighting Nutrient Runoff – DTN12-17

    Louisiana Pecans: Deliveries Very Light, Few Improved Varieties12-17

    Tennessee: TAPA Winter Agronomic Workshop and Cotton Focus, Jackson, Feb. 11-1212-17

    Crop Insurance: Supplemental Coverage Option Unavailable When Choosing ARC Programs12-17

    Crop Insurance: Choosing Between Base Acre Allocation Alternatives12-17

    Senate Passes Tax Extenders Bill with Key Provisions for Ag — DTN12-17

    Brazil: Amazon Deforestation Issues Concern Ag Communities – DTN12-16

    DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Global Phosphorous Demand to Increase12-16

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices12-16

    Buying Local Not Without Risks, Study Finds12-16

    U.S. Ag in Strong Position with High Avian Flu Risks Elsewhere in ’1512-16

    Grain Markets: 50-Day Moving Average Never Out of Style — DTN12-16

    Sunbelt Ag Events

    Rice News

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office 601-992-3503 Fax

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney