USDA Supply/Demand Report: Winter Wheat Up 13 Percent from 2011
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, up 13 percent from 2011. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 35.6 million acres, up 10 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 47.6 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from last year.
Hard Red Winter, at 1.03 billion bushels, is up 32 percent from 2011. Soft Red Winter, at 428 million bushels, is down 6 percent from last year. White Winter is down 9 percent from last year and now totals 233 million bushels. Of this total, 14.1 million bushels are Hard White and 219 million bushels are Soft White.
The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.91 million tons, up slightly from both the April 1 forecast and the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 145 million boxes (6.53 million tons), is up slightly from the April 1 forecast and up 3 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 74.2 million boxes (3.34 million tons), up slightly from the April 1 forecast and up 6 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (3.20 million tons), is unchanged from the April 1 forecast but up 1 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Harvest of Valencia oranges in Florida is ahead of last year. Drought conditions continue in Florida’s citrus growing regions. California and Texas production forecasts are carried forward from April.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1 percent from the April forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is 1.56 gallons per box, up 3 percent from last season’s yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.71 gallons per box, 3 percent higher than last year’s final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
The ICE Dec and Mar contracts gave back 160 and 87 points on the week, respectively, as last week’s inversion between the two contracts gave way to partial carry. Well,