Agfax Buzz:
    April 17, 2012

    Doane Cotton Close: Market Finishes Mostly Higher

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    The Doane Cotton Commentary - Leading in Agricultural Analysis Over 70 Years - Copyright

    The cotton market finished mostly higher on Tuesday after recovering some of Monday’s substantial losses. Nearby May was limit down on Monday, and at one point today was up as much as 305 points. The remaining contracts were not as strong today, as Monday’s losses were not as drastic as the May contract. December’s largest gain today was 159 points, from which futures retreated and turned negative. May settled 135 points higher at 89.43 cents while December was 4 points lower at 86.33 cents.

    Futures bounced back from Monday’s sell-off, especially the May contract, but that was not enough to hold up the deferreds that were not as much lower yesterday. Heavy rains across south Texas and into Louisiana and Mississippi were favorable for building soil moisture levels. The rain and uncertainty over China’s cotton use are bearish factors for cotton right now.

    Today’s weekly Crop Progress report showed 13% of the crop planted so far, up from 8% at this point last year and the 5-year average of 9%. Texas is ahead of normal at 18% and Arizona is a blazing 38% also. Only California is behind at 10% versus the average 46%.

    Last week’s export sales report was a bit disappointing, though with large shipments and accumulated sales already totaling the 11.4 million bale export estimate, this was not a big concern. Shipments were still solid at a little over 200,000 running bales. Though down from recent weeks, this will still easily meet USDA’s forecast. Weekly sales were a net negative 53,600 running bales due to cancellations from China, Indonesia and Guatemala.



    April’s monthly Supply/Demand report from USDA was mixed for cotton, with U.S. fundamentals bullish while the world data were a bit bearish. USDA cut the U.S. yield for 2011 to 766 lbs/acr, down from 772 lbs/acr. This dropped production from 15.67 million bales to 15.56 million, which was in line with trade expectations. Exports were raised a huge 400,000 bales, putting them at 11.4 million. The weekly export reports have shown shipments maintaining a strong pace since late January, which has indicated that the export forecast would likely be increased. Hence, this was not a huge surprise for the adjustment to be made, but it was a bit more than was expected at this point in the marketing year, given USDA’s tendency to be slow in making such adjustments. The cut in production and increase in exports decreased ending stocks by a huge 500,000 bales to 3.4 million. This would typically be quite bullish, but given the burdensome world stocks, which were increased even further in this report, the impact is muted.

    On the world level 2011/12 ending stocks were raised 3.75 million bales to 66.07 million. Ending stocks for 11/12 have been increased every month since September when they were estimated at 51.91 million bales. That puts cotton stocks 14.16 million bales higher than we were expecting 7 months ago. In September 2011 July cotton futures were trading in the mid to upper 90-cent range, whereas now they are trading in the upper 80-cent range. The growing stocks have mostly been due to cuts in the consumption forecast. However, today’s jump was largely attributable to a boost in 11/12 beginning stocks, as India’s “loss” category is now pegged at -1.75 million bales for both 09/10 and 10/11.

    Copyright , Doane Advisory Services

    >

    Agfax Cotton News

    Shurley on Cotton: Prices Try to Stabilize, Still Show Weakness7-25

    DTN Cotton Open: Extends Losses in Early Going7-25

    Keith Good: Agricultural Economy May be Headed for Sustained Slump7-25

    Georgia: Corn Earworm, Tobacco Budworm Moth Captures Increasing In Brooks County7-25

    Doane Cotton Close: Prices Break Out of Range Lower7-24

    AFB Cotton Close: Breaks Support with Sharp Losses7-24

    DTN Cotton Close: Plunges to new Contract Low7-24

    Georgia Cotton: Tarnished Plant Bug Numbers Higher Than Normal7-24

    DTN Cotton Open: Trades with Modest Losses7-24

    U.S. Energy: Refineries Running at Record Levels7-24

    Gasoline Prices: Show 4-Cent Decrease7-24

    Propane Stocks: Continue to Rise7-24

    Diesel Prices: Average Declines by 3 Cents7-24

    Keith Good: House Ag Committee Chair Prods USDA on Crop Insurance7-24

    Doane Cotton Close: Prices Mixed in Light Trade7-23

    AFB Cotton Close: Dec. Continues Slight Gains7-23

    10 Arkansas and 2 Tennessee Counties Designated Natural Disaster Areas7-23

    DTN Cotton Close: Slight Gains in Dec.7-23

    Drones Monitoring the Garden or Your Crop? One is Legal, one is not.7-23

    Virginia Cotton: Time to be Concerned about Stink Bugs7-23

    Cotton In The Midsouth – Plant Bugs Persist As Bollworms Arrive – AgFax7-23

    DTN Cotton Open: Ticks Higher in Quiet Dealings7-23

    Cotton – Plant Bugs, Stink Bugs Overlapping In Parts Of Southeast – AgFax7-23

    California Cotton: Flea Beetle Numbers on Rise7-23

    North Carolina Cotton: Scouting for Boll Injury from Stink Bugs7-23

    Keith Good: EPA Rejects Milo-Pro Herbicide for Use in Texas Cotton7-23

    Cotton in Southwest: Blooms Spreading; Fleahopper, White Fly on the Move7-22

    Doane Cotton Close: ICAC Releases Supply and Demand Forecasts7-22

    AFB Cotton Close: Moves Higher on Continued Consolidation7-22

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles with Modest Gains7-22

    USDA: Don’t Forget Farm Bill Conservation Compliance Changes7-22

    AgFax Cotton Review: Worst Price Slump in 55 Years; Weather Delays Development7-22

    Texas Crop Weather: Hay Situation Good in East, Southeast, Iffy Elsewhere7-22

    Georgia: Crops in Mostly Good Condition with Some Heat Stress – USDA7-22

    South Carolina: Rains Benefit Crops but Some Areas Still Stressed – USDA7-22

    Alabama: Crops Hold Steady with Welcome Showers – USDA7-22

    DTN Cotton Open: Trades Above Highs of Prior 3 Days7-22

    North Carolina Cotton: Stink Bug Management7-22

    Keith Good: Soybeans, Corn Garner High Condition Ratings, Lower Prices7-22