Agfax Buzz:
    April 5, 2012

    Doane Cotton Close: Market Settled Much Lower

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    The Doane Cotton Commentary - Leading in Agricultural Analysis Over 70 Years - Copyright

    The cotton market settled lower Thursday ahead of the 3-day weekend. Follow-through selling continued this morning after Wednesday’s big break, dropping futures to the price range in which they were trading about 2 weeks ago before the recent rally. May lost 78 points to close at 88.54 cents and December was down 72 points at 87.54 cents. This morning’s bearish export report for cotton confirmed trader’s fears on Wednesday, as there were big cotton cancellations. Anticipation of a poor export report triggered selling on Wednesday, which caused the nearby contract to fall by the biggest margin since last November.

    Cotton sales were a net negative 143,743 running bales for upland cotton. Large cancellations by both China and Brazil were the big issues. Shipments remain strong though, over 422,000 running bales for both upland and pima, which could point toward an increase in USDA’s export forecast on Tuesday. The market has not seemed concerned about news out of India that they will be stockpiling cotton, with the government planning to purchase 1 million bales each of the next two months. India has not yet resumed registering cotton for exports, and has been slow to ship what is currently registered. Also bearish has been the higher than expected cotton plantings for this spring.

    Cotton will be very susceptible to losing additional acres to soybeans. According to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report from Friday, cotton acres are seen falling from 14.732 million acres in 2011 to 13.155 million, a decline of 1.577 million or 10.7%. Georgia is seen with the biggest change after a huge record planting of 1.60 million acres in 2011 acreage is seen decreasing to 1.40 million. Texas is seen decreasing from 7.57 million to 6.81 million, which is proportionate with the total decline.



    Large cuts are also expected for North Carolina and Arkansas, down 105,000 and 90,000 acres, respectively. Missouri was left unchanged at 375,000 acres while South Carolina is the only state seen increasing cotton plantings, up 37,000 acres to 340,000. Soybean prices are MUCH more desirable compared to cotton right now.

    This time last year cotton was just off of its record highs, well over $2.00. Now prices are less than half of that, and although they have found support recently, the longer term fundamentals are fairly bearish. Soybeans, on the other hand, are above their year-ago levels and are pushing toward record highs. Uncertainty about China’s plantings and use will heavily sway the cotton outlook, but in general, world cotton stocks are burdensome at 62.32 million bales. USDA issued its first Crop Progress report of the season for cotton. The report showed 7% of the U.S. crop planted so far, compared to 5% last year and the 5-year average of 4%. Texas has planted 12% so far, Arizona 20%, Georgia 2% and Alabama 3%.We look for prices to trade mostly sideways from this point and for the trade to start focusing more on planting progress and conditions as cotton gets planted.

    Tags:

    Copyright , Doane Advisory Services

    >

    Agfax Cotton News

    Georgia Cotton: Aphids Down, Plant Bugs Still Around7-25

    Doane Cotton Close: Futures Continue Lower After Midweek Rally7-25

    South Carolina Cotton, Soybeans: Insects on the Rise7-25

    Mississippi Cotton: Tranform Efficacy on Aphids Decreases with Cool Temps7-25

    AFB Cotton Close: Sell-Off Continues7-25

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles on New Contract Lows7-25

    Arkansas: New iPhone App Simplifies Farmers’ Finances7-25

    Shurley on Cotton: Prices Try to Stabilize, Still Show Weakness7-25

    DTN Cotton Open: Extends Losses in Early Going7-25

    Keith Good: Declining Commodity Prices Foreshadow Ag Slump? Maybe.7-25

    Georgia: Corn Earworm, Tobacco Budworm Moth Captures Increasing In Brooks County7-25

    Doane Cotton Close: Prices Break Out of Range Lower7-24

    AFB Cotton Close: Breaks Support with Sharp Losses7-24

    DTN Cotton Close: Plunges to new Contract Low7-24

    Georgia Cotton: Tarnished Plant Bug Numbers Higher Than Normal7-24

    DTN Cotton Open: Trades with Modest Losses7-24

    U.S. Energy: Refineries Running at Record Levels7-24

    Gasoline Prices: Show 4-Cent Decrease7-24

    Propane Stocks: Continue to Rise7-24

    Diesel Prices: Average Declines by 3 Cents7-24

    Keith Good: House Ag Committee Chair Prods USDA on Crop Insurance7-24

    Doane Cotton Close: Prices Mixed in Light Trade7-23

    AFB Cotton Close: Dec. Continues Slight Gains7-23

    10 Arkansas and 2 Tennessee Counties Designated Natural Disaster Areas7-23

    DTN Cotton Close: Slight Gains in Dec.7-23

    Drones Monitoring the Garden or Your Crop? One Is Legal, One Is Not.7-23

    Virginia Cotton: Time to be Concerned about Stink Bugs7-23

    Cotton In The Midsouth – Plant Bugs Persist As Bollworms Arrive – AgFax7-23

    DTN Cotton Open: Ticks Higher in Quiet Dealings7-23

    Cotton – Plant Bugs, Stink Bugs Overlapping In Parts Of Southeast – AgFax7-23

    California Cotton: Flea Beetle Numbers on Rise7-23

    North Carolina Cotton: Scouting for Boll Injury from Stink Bugs7-23

    Keith Good: EPA Rejects Milo-Pro Herbicide for Use in Texas Cotton7-23

    Cotton in Southwest: Blooms Spreading; Fleahopper, White Fly on the Move7-22

    Doane Cotton Close: ICAC Releases Supply and Demand Forecasts7-22

    AFB Cotton Close: Moves Higher on Continued Consolidation7-22

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles with Modest Gains7-22

    USDA: Don’t Forget Farm Bill Conservation Compliance Changes7-22

    AgFax Cotton Review: Worst Price Slump in 55 Years; Weather Delays Development7-22

    Texas Crop Weather: Hay Situation Good in East, Southeast, Iffy Elsewhere7-22