Friday, March 16, 2012

Drought Takes Toll on Mexican Agriculture

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


How drought will affect Mexico’s demand for U.S. feed grains is hard to assess, but the impact is likely to be felt for two to three years, according to Julio Hernandez, who directs market development programs in Mexico for the U.S. Grains Council.

The drought, part of the same weather system that devastated Texas and nearby states last year, is Mexico’s worst in 70 years, according to Ignacio Rivera, the country’s undersecretary for rural development. Rivera predicted it will lower corn production for the current year to only 780 million bushels, compared to 830 million bushels in the 2010/11 calendar year.

Current grain shortages could push Mexico’s imports this year above 9.5 million metric tons (374 million bushels) of corn and sorghum above 3 million tons (118 million bushels), Hernandez said. Mexico is already the second-largest customer for U.S. feed grain exports and a leading buyer of distiller’s dried grains with solubles.

“Problems began last year when severe frost damaged Mexico’s corn crop. That forced Mexico’s tortilla manufacturers to look for other sources of white corn,” Hernandez said. “In an attempt to minimize these losses with replanting, the government sent additional water from the reservoirs. Now Mexico is suffering because it doesn’t have enough water in the reservoirs for this year’s crop.”

While crop losses are likely to create more demand for U.S. exports, the drought-related losses in the livestock sector are a potential offset. Mexico’s ministry of agriculture estimates that 60,000 cattle have died and an additional 89,000 have been culled by producers.

Livestock producers say it will take as much as three years for herds to recover.

“Those cows that were lost are not going to produce calves, and the period those calves need to grow is about three years,” said Alvaro Ley, president of the Mexican Cattle Growers Association.

The most serious problems are in northern Mexican states like Sinaloa, Zacatecas, Chihuahua and San Luis Potosi, where many cattle producers have small, open-range operations of 20 cows or less, according to Hernandez. Jalisco, Mexico’s leading agricultural state, was much less affected.

“My impression is that the large commercial operations took steps to buy corn from other parts of Mexico like Oaxaca and Chiapas. That was not enough, so there were additional imports of grain. Now we are seeing more purchases again. Companies are buying corn and sorghum in January or February instead of April or May,” Hernandez explained.

“It will be really hard to tell exactly what consequences this will have,” Hernandez concluded. “If you ask the feedlots, they are doing a lot to recover, but we will be missing some cattle numbers for the next two to three years.”

Tags:


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    DTN Livestock Open: Support from Premium Feedlot Sales5-5

    DTN Grain Open: U.S. Dollar Index Higher5-5

    Grain TV: Winter Wheat Conditions Improve5-4

    DTN Livestock Close: Triple Digit Gains Dominate Cattle Complex5-4

    4 Need-to-Know Things About Tree Crops This Week – AgFax Video5-4

    Crop Progress: Corn Planting Takes Off, Strong Start for Soybeans – DTN5-4

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Soybeans Defy General Weakness5-4

    AFB Cotton Close: Recovers Off Early Lows5-4

    AFB Rice Close: Bearish Key Reversal5-4

    DTN Cotton Close: Commercial Selling Triggers Speculative Buying5-4

    HRW Wheat Tour Preview: Not One of the Better Years – DTN5-4

    Georgia: April Warmer, Wetter Than Normal5-4

    Beef: Industry Travels to the Beat of a Different Drum This Year5-4

    Australia Peanuts: Good Yields, Poorer Grades5-4

    DTN Grain Close: Big Boost in Corn Planting Expected5-4

    U.S. Claims Labeling Doesn’t Discriminate Against Mexican, Canadian Meat – DTN5-4

    How Do Your Crop Costs Compare? USDA Offers Answers, 2013-20145-4

    Soybeans: Low Allergens Achieved Through Breeding5-4

    DTN Livestock Midday: Strong Gains Not Expected5-4

    Basis Maps For Great Plains Grains – From Kansas State5-4

    Northern Plains: Wheat Acres Shift to Corn and Soybeans Due to Climate Change5-4

    Biodiesel Production On Small Scale Part of Tennessee Field Day May 195-4

    DTN Cotton Open: Market Remains Bullish5-4

    Flint on Crops: Growers Prepare to Plant “Alternative Crops” Due to Weather5-4

    Grain Sorghum: Sugarcane Aphid Treatments Triggered In Lower Rio Grande Valley5-4

    Rice Farmers Finally Getting What They Immediately Need – AgFax5-1

    Glyphosate Resistant Palmer Pigweed Confirmed in Southwest Nebraska5-1

    Rice Crop: Rain, Hail Weigh Heavily on Getting Planting Done5-1

    Rice Market: Slow Week Though Export Sale Commitments Increased5-1

    Cleveland on Cotton: Gotta Love this Market5-1

    Rose on Cotton: Expect Improved Forward Contracting – Tread Carefully5-1

    Stink Bugs: Bottle ‘Em Up; Entomologist Need Reports, Specimens – DTN5-1

    USDA Wildlife Habitat Program – 30 Years, 1M Acres5-1

    USDA Announces Commodity Credit Corporation Lending Rates for May 20155-1

    Louisiana: Insect, Disease Management Critical as Ag Exports Increase5-1

    Southern Grains – “Odd” and “Weird” Season Veers Toward Normal – AgFax5-1

    Arkansas Rice Specialty License Plates Now Available5-1

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Limited Expansion, Limited Improvement5-1

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights5-1

    Corn: Gene-Silencing Technique Attempts Aflatoxin-Resistance – DTN5-1

    Weekly Cotton Market Review – USDA5-1

    Bt Protein: New Boll Weevil Weapon Approved in South America – DTN5-1

    Sweet Potatoes: Discovery Could Turn GMO Debate on Its Head – DTN5-1

    DTN Grain Midday: U.S. Dollar Rebounds5-1

    Cotton: Nearly 200 Farmers Will Put XtendFlex Through Its Paces In 20155-1

    USDA Farmers Market Kicks Off Its 20th Season5-1

    FFA: Endowment to Kick Start Plan for More Ag Teachers5-1

    Corn: USDA Yield Forecasts – What Do the Numbers Mean?4-30

    Grain TV: Unexpected Cancellations and Underestimates4-30

    Weed Management: Pre-Emergent Control Necessary for Pigweed – Video4-30

    Moving Grains: Corn Inspections Highest in Over a Year4-30

    Peanut Stocks: Utilization Up 6% from ’144-30

    U.S. Drought Monitor Quick Look Video – AgFax4-30

    Drought Monitor: Heavy Rains for Southern Plains, Southeast4-30

    White House Defends WOTUS as Debate Continues – DTN4-30

    Farmland Rents 2015: Pain, Fear, Reality – AgFax Midwest Grain4-29

    Ask the Taxman: Retirement Strategies, Living Trusts, Accounting for Leases – DTN4-29

    Bird Flu: Poultry Loss Claims Keep Growing, USDA Eyes Backup Funds – DTN4-29

    Uncertain Future for RFS Compliance Rules – Farmdoc4-29

    Propane Stocks Remain at Comfortable Levels4-29

    Gasoline Prices Jump Higher4-29

    Diesel Prices on the Rise4-29

    Texas: Wheat Field Day, Bushland, May 214-29

    Farm Safety: Grain Bin Entrapments Up Nationwide in 20144-29

    Sunbelt Ag Events

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney +